To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (52976 ) 3/19/1999 11:59:00 PM From: Cirruslvr Respond to of 1583493
Tad - RE: "1) With no public guidance from the company (and, I believe, no private guidance, either), several analysts took it upon themselves to raise their estimates during late December and early January." "As a defense, AMD could offer that shareholders' losses from $33 were unfortunate, but the company had not guided people to the higher expectations that had led to the increase in price" If I recall correctly, I remember reading that AMD told Merrill Lynch in December they would make 5.7 million processors in the Q, rather than 5.5 million. As a result, Kurlack upgraded AMD. I think the stock reacted positively that day. Can anyone backup or disprove my memory? I also remember the eerily accurate Kumar, who was VERY negative on AMD in the months prior to the Q4 earnings release, raising his AMD estimate. The prior two quarters, this guy hit the nail right on the head with his reveune estimates . He obviously had (has?) contacts within the company and he reported his estimates to News.com, who ran an article very early in the morning telling what Kumar expected. When News.com ran their regular Kumar estimates of Q4, he raised his per share estimate of AMD, but he also said he expected ASPs to be lower than $100. However, his ASP estimate was a few dollars above what AMD actually ended up having (approx. $94 vs. $88-89 respectively). I also remember other analysts raising their estimates for AMD. Maxwell had a fairly accurate table of what different analysts expected AMD to earn in Q4. RE: "The portion of the shareholders' losses due to manufacturing problems at AMD were, apparently, quite small." I disagree with that statement. If AMD didn't have any manufacturing problems, they would have easily made much more money in Q4 (because of a greater percentage of 350-400MHz processors made as opposed to, at the time, worthless 300 and 333MHz processors), and probably easily made a profit this Q (because of the 400MHz processors and new 450MHz ones). That manufacturing problem will probably continue to haunt AMD until Q2 (not as an actual manufacturing problem, but as a result of delayed higher MHz processor availability). Hopefully next Q, AMD will actually have 450MHz K6-IIIs made to offset Intel's price drops. Does AMD force you to sign a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA)? Or are you not allowed to disclose that info? ;)