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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken who wrote (4842)	3/19/1999 10:01:00 PM
From: Ken	Respond to of 9818

VITAL! A New,Expanded Predictive Model: The 'Fatal Five'! Most of you are probably quite aware of the 'Iron Triangle'. For anyone that is not, a brief overview: ....the 3 main pillars of our modern society are: banking, telecom, and electricity.... ....all 3 of those MUST remain intact and functional for our society to continue as is.. ....if any one of those three collapse, it will collapse the other two per the cascading effect ....all three are totally interconnected/interdependent... However, that is a grossly inadequate as a view of the practical foundation of modern society... it is now obsolete... It has been replaced by a more expansive and complete one, called The 'Fatal Five'. This adds two other EQUALLY vital pillars of the foundation of any modern society, and both MUST also remain functionally intact for our society to continue instead of collapse. It adds the following: heavy transport and water utilities. If any of those five collapse, it will collapse ALL the other four, also thru the domino effects. All five are totally interconnected. Simply stated, e.g., if heavy transport is substantially disrupted, no fuel for utility plants, no gas for workers to get to the plants for repair, no gas via maritime tankers, no replacement chips via air cargo, etc., ad naseum! If water utilities are non-functional, e.g., everyone will die within about three days of dehydration, unless water is stored, nothing will be repaired with engineers/programmers dead from thrist, no water for fire-fighting, etc., ad naseum. I have seen authoritative articles indicating that the water utilities have even more serious embedded chip/systems problems than do electrical utilities! OF ALL 5 PILLARS OF CIVILILIZATION, WHICH IS THE MOST VITAL FOR SURIVIVAL OF CIVILIZATION? Almost everyone will give the conventional answer: electricity! Right? WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! IT IS THE WATER UTILITIES!!!! NO ONE CAN LIVE FOR MORE THAN ABOUT THREE DAYS WITHOUT WATER! And, this was NOT even included in the concept of the Iron Triangle, as used by most/virtually every y2k expert!!!! How can we have much cause for optimism! WHEN YOU WANT TO EVALUATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE NATIONAL AND GLOBAL Y2K PROBLEMS, AND BE ABLE TO BEST PREDICT WHAT IS COMING AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT YOU, YOUR CITY, NATION AND SOCIETY.... USE THE 'FATAL FIVE' MODEL! And, then, your comprehension and predictive powers will far surpass almost everyone else who does not know of, or use this model! Ken "its too late, its too interconnected, its too interdependent, and its too global"!

To: Ken who wrote (4842)	3/19/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Ken, I'm not going to argue with you. Some folks believe there Y2K is the end of the world. I frankly don't. You're obviously spending too much time reading Gary North's website. And that is your right to believe and prepare yourself based upon that belief. And if it is TEOTWAWKI, fine. We'll pick up the pieces, put 'em back together, and "drive on" with or without you. After all, we can't all head for the hills and play Grizzly Adams. Ken, it seems you're a defeatist, plain and simple. I'm sorry to be so harsh, but your words denote you have already surrendered to your fears without knowing what will or will not happen on Jan 1st, 2000. The first lesson in doing analysis of Y2K is that no one knows what will happen and what will work and what won't. So we see our economy dragged back to a 1970's level. Big deal. We'll fix it and be better off for it. I'm worried about ensuring that people don't starve and we don't have a breakdown of social order that exacerbates any problems. I'm fully aware of the potential I will bet you the barn on that one. If I possessed a barn, I'd take that bet.... Then I would possess two of them.... <VBG> Regards, Ron