To: accountclosed who wrote (26601 ) 3/21/1999 10:43:00 PM From: John Pitera Respond to of 86076
The most interesting thing Peter E has been saying lately is that he is looking for bonds to head lower over the next 6-9 months and has a 108 level targeted, That would take us back to over 7% and that would beat the hell out of all of the valuation Models from the Fed's, to Gazarelli's to AJC, Zweig's, Yardeni you name it and they will be on red light alert. So Eliades bond comments if they materialize are more important than anything else as stocks will fall into line, in this scenerio of rising rates. Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, March 19, 1999. It was quite a day, wasn't it? Within eight minutes of the opening bell the Dow had exploded above the 10,000 level and the bulls were convinced this was it. As it turned out, the high for the day was seen almost exactly eight minutes after the opening bell and the Dow closed over 180 points below its high. After the smoke had cleared, the simply awful market internals could be clearly seen once again. The Dow was still up for the week despite the reversal today, but the daily advance-decline line was down once again almost another 1000 units and it remains amazingly close to its October 1998 low. How long can the worst breadth divergence since 1929 go on without the market showing some affect? We believe we should find out quite soon. If this market moves directly up another 5-10% over the next few weeks, then it will have made a mockery out of one more bearish statistic, making the prior ten based multiples resistances on the Dow 100 and Dow 1000. Incidentally, the new Barron's on the news stands tomorrow dated March 22 will have an article that we authored about the historic prior resistance levels of Dow 100, and Dow 1000. We will now watch closely to see how the Dow will react if it moves back to its 17 ½% envelope above the two year moving average. Today the envelope stood at 9762.17. It is moving up around 7 points per day. Will the envelope now start to act as support? If it does, it could mean a bullish outlook for the Dow. Today the Dow closed 1 ½% above the envelope. Mutual fund switchers, we did something that we rarely do today, and moved Rydex switchers immediately back into the Rydex Ursa fund the day after we recommended exit from the fund. The exit yesterday was prompted by an apparently decisive close above the envelope discussed here and in our February 5 newsletter. The failure to follow through to the upside especially with the great resistance that we expect around Dow 10,000 prompted our recommended return to the fund today. Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call after 3:20 p.m. each market day and each market evening. Stock Index Futures traders, we sold our long positions on the June S&P in the first two minutes of trading when the S&P Cash immediately moved above our exit trigger of 1317.80. We will use the low average price of the first two minutes or 1336.30 for a profit of $12.20. We then shorted at 1322.50 on a break of 1322.70. On Monday, place your stops at 1324.40. Lower those stops to 1219.90 on any move below 1303. June bonds still project to 123 ½ +- ½ a point to the upside, but remember we also have nominal 78-80 week projections on the bonds to below the 108 level. The XAU still has lower projections. That's it for now. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you tomorrow.