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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Alan Greenspan's contribution: "History tells us that sharp reversals in confidence happen abruptly, most often with little advance notice. They are self-reinforcing processes that can compress into a very short time period. Panic market reactions are characterized by a dramatic shift to maximize short term value, and are an extension of human behavior that manifests itself in all forms of human interaction - a set of responses that does not seem to have changed over the generations. I defy anyone to distinguish a speculative price pattern for 1999 from one for 1899 if the charts specify neither the dates nor the levels of the prices."

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: Tim Luke	Respond to of 99985

maybe a shade under black monday

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: epicure	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I expect a strong correction- possibly on the back of increased oil prices, which might necessitate a rise in interest rates. The situation of new highs coupled with the rot in the broader market has been worrying me for some time- so I bought oil stocks, but sold those recently because I was afraid that in a really big downdraft everything would be sold off regardless of quality and discount. So my strategy has been in the last few weeks to accumulate leap puts or August puts- if leaps were not available- on T, SLR, AMP, MXF, MOT, CMB, EGRP, all were selected because of overbought status on the weekly and 3 day stochastic. Some of them were mentioned on Michael Burke's thread- like MXF, SLR and CMB.

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Friday's action looked to me to be based upon expiration-related selling, and perhaps traders getting flat going into a weekend where our government is sabre-rattlling (with an uncertain outcome). I usually watch ^VIX at times like this, and since it is at a relatively moderate level, and closed down: it looks to me that the market participants weren't all that nervous about either the dow 10k failure or the possible US military action. Seems like a lot traders are discounting the increase in bond rates as hedging ahead of the AT&T bond deal, and the expectation is for those positions to be unwound. My sense of the economy is that it is cooling off a bit, and that the recent pop in GDP won't last. Therefore, I'd expect the Fed to remain neutral. If the Fed raises rates, it may dampen the revival in Japan and Europe, so that also argues against raising rates. I think oil can stay at any price below $17.50/so per barrel, and we won't see big increases in inflation (based upon past history). As far as predictions go: (1) another small leg up, slightly above dow 10k, (2) a leg down to 9K, (3) a leg up in late summer to maybe 11k, and (4) a dive at the end of the year based upon Y2K fears. Basically, a picture a lot like 1899. Note, however, for the 1899 scenario to play out exactly, we'd have to see a recession begin to unfold, beginning in May, or June, and so far that appears unlikely.

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

copied from the BK thread #reply-8425260 To: GROUND ZERO (38826 ) From: William H Hueb ( Ignore ) Saturday, Mar 20 1999 7:58AM ET Reply # of 38857 WILL GREESPAN ACT??? GZ, There is only 1 thing that will take this market down... an interest rate increase! And this is the part in which you will absolutely kill me!!! My studies of the latest Barron's (Mar 22, 1999) show that we could get to 10,500 next week AND PROBABLY WILL!!! Why? Most actives $ is climbing: M=D, T=U, W=U, T=VERY STRONG UP!!!, F=? Odd-lot short sales are on the INCREASE - a bullish sign. Investment advisors' seem to have increased in bearishness. Ratio of equity calls to index puts is hanging in there a little over 10... this figure needs to get over 20 before the crisis is at hand! SCY ratio has yet to penetrate it's MA and could easily get to .86 or .85 before it does. Yeah - again historical lows for it. Don't get me wrong... a wiff of inflation and the market is GONE! But until AG or some obvious event to make AG move, the path of least resistance is still up... believe it or not! I can't believe I am posting this bullish forecast... but that is what I see for the coming week! Now you can kill me! Bill PS I will change this forecast in a heartbeat if I see anything out there to change my mind!

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: Eddy Blinker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<A CHALLENGE TO ALL> LG, daytrader.cc please click on DJ.Industrial Average and inspect our 30 day DJI forecast for what it's worth. Regards, ED PS.Blinker and Mueller the only indices forecasters on the WEB without preprogrammed excuses.

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: zoya	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

lg, my guess would be that they shake out as many people as possible early next week and then strongly up towards end quarter window dressing to about 10500-600.towards the end of first week of april momentum slows down and we may have a selloff to about 9600-9700 come april 15th.

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 3:15:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Peter Eliades: "Dow 10,000 by 2015?" stockmarketcycles.com Hmmm, Peter is bearish. Now, that's a surprise! :) A few quotes: The only other occasion over the past 68 years that saw the Dow go to a new all-time high intra-day on the same week when the weekly A-D line was below its own 52 week MA was the week ending January 8, 1960. That week marked an exact Dow high. The Dow declined 18% over the next nine months and did not move above the January 1960 high until over 15 months later. That is the complete history of such coincidences over the past 68 years. Because there were only three or four prior occasions, we cannot consider the results statistically significant. If we follow former results, however, we should either have seen the final highs already or be, at most, six to nine weeks from the final high as measured from the week ending November 27. That would allow for a final high no later than Friday, January 29, 1999. The next observations deal with our own CI-NCI ratio and the recent readings as some prices moved to new all time highs. On November 23 when the Dow moved to a new all-time high, both intra-day and on a closing basis, the CI-NCI ratio closed at .970. There have been few occasions over the past several decades when the Dow moved to new all time highs accompanied by a CI-NCI Ratio below 1.00. There have been even fewer occasions when the ratio at a new all-time Dow high was below .971 as it was on November 23. Since 1940, here are the only instances when that occurred. 1) January 5, 1960 2) November 10, 13 1972 3) January 11, 1973 4) May 14 through June 4, 1990 (9 different days) 5) November 23, 1998 If the above dates look familiar, they compare almost exactly with the statistics given above for the few times the Dow went to a new all time high accompanied by a weekly A-D line below its own 52 week MA. There's quite a bit more, on his page, including this chart of the Cappock Indicator: stockmarketcycles.com disclaimer: frankly, Peter E. has been one heck of a contrarian indicator, but hey, maybe it is different this time.

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The Market... **************** LG: The Dow is forming a mini Head & Shoulders pattern with the right shoulder in the 9750 area... That's where I think we'll see the Dow test the waters before re-testing the 10,000 area... decisionpoint.com If the 9750 area fails, the next test will be 9600... The McClellan Oscillator is heading south... decisionpoint.com If this continues, it will reverse the current uptrend in the McClellan Summation Index... decisionpoint.com If that slower index turns down, so will the overall market... New Lows are expanding... decisionpoint.com The longer New Lows continue above the 40 level, the greater the chance for a market breakdown... ******************************************************************** So bottom line, The Dow will test 9750... If that fails, it will test 9600... A successful test of these areas will bring in another market up leg to the 10,500 to 11,000 area... A failure would take the Dow down to 9250... Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/20/1999 7:42:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, From a PnFer POV. Main market indicator, the NYSE Bullish Percent has been on a sell signal since Feb 2. Some leading indicators turned positive recently, though never went to a buy status. This also happened last August before continuing down. The NYSEBP is at 40% right now, but started its trip down from 56%. The NYSEBP was at 72% when it turned down last year and ended at 16%. The point being, the higher the percentage from whence the turnaround starts, the more profound the move down is likely to be. DJIA (9903) 9600 Minor support at 9600 (last triple top). 9250 Triple Bottom Support 9100 Quad Bottom Support 8950 Bullish Support Line 8900 BK Naz Support (2410) 2420 2370 2300 2210-2240 S&P Support (1299) 1290-1295 1210-1220 Though totally against Piffer policy of predicting, I'll go for a 10% correction, clock ticking from yesterday to April 15th or when CSCO corrects 10%. I'll stick with the idea that the only BK that we will see is the one down at the corner serving burgers. JXM

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 12:08:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG Re Friday AM call. Last Tuesdays Class 1 sell by don had been bothering me because of how things were timing out. In the end I figured that his class one sell had been time offset by all of the 10k hype and with the resulting timing: >The next low was almost exactly 24 hours later. The next >high was almost exactly 24 hours after that (near close >today). Which would put us at day three max effect near >close tomorrow. #reply-8398317 posted Thursday night. Don's response was to tell me that the market had triggered another Class sell to start on the high of Friday. >My short-term technicals are all back in the CLASS SELL >category, some CLASS 1's and some CLASS 2's, so the BUY-IN >should be at tomorrow's highs again. #reply-8398645 posted again on Thursday night. So then what we had was the impact of class 1 sell number one and another class sell both timed to hit Friday! As per my post to don I expected to see the max effect of day three of his first class 1 sell near the end of day Friday. His class sell from Thursday was set to hit at the high of Friday. This was supposed to have been day one of this class sell and should have been a negative market day. Globex was up strongly and I've noticed a habbit of the spoo traders to sell a gap up or buy a gap down as soon as momentum slows down. Lately the market has been driven by the S&P futures. First the spoo ticks then the trin ticks then the market follows. I would guess that it's because of the computer buy/sell programs that go off. So then .. because of the spoo and Globex .. gap up open that would be sold by the spoo traders. When the spoo traders sell off that triggers the computer sell programs. As the market would be over 10k at that time, the natural response from the old time traders would be to assume that 10k was not going to hold and continue the sell. Add to that the two don class calls. To me it seemed a simple call. Now .. as for next week. Following the logic of don's great class sells .. the class 2 sell that don called on Thursday probably morphed into a class 1 within the first three minuets of the market open on Friday. The resulting drop (something like 180 DJIA points) would have almost fullfilled the class call .. but .. That selloff started fast .. real fast. Normaly this would imply a strong pull back. This time, however, things have been muddied by the other class sell call, the 10k hype and tripple witching. That said .. following the clasic don patterns, Monday should be a mild down day with Tuesday being a strong down day. If the speed of which the sell hit carries through it's implications then Monday could be a continuation of Fridays selling with Tuesday being the center of the pattern and Wednesday and Thursday being strong selling days. The end of either of the two time frames should put us into one of don's class buy times. Now .. Bill's call for the week would be real nice because as soon as I posted this: #reply-8392302 I called in the buy order on the 401k .. my target at the time was to get the close price on Friday. I would guess that I will probably get Mondays close prices. At this time I expect to put in the sell order on Tuesday to get Thursday's close prices. I expect to see Friday down. don .. I don't know what you do .. but whatever it is .. keep doing it please. Gersh

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 3:56:00 AM
From: scotty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

A halt in trading......http://www.programtrading.com/curbs.htm option traders should read " other risks " in the agreement they signed Bad things, man

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 10:08:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

#reply-8436155

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

Nice post from OJ: #reply-8442082

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 11:11:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

OOPS, I forgot about Bernard Baruch. As he was setting sail to Europe, somewhere around September, '29, a sea of reporters said, Mr. Baruch, Mr Baruch, what is the market going to do? His answer was "The market will fluctuate." HA, a very simple but accurate statement. I put some charts up at: cp-tel.net Thanks Monty, Vitas

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

My feel is the Dow and S&P will pull back to their respective breakout areas of 9650-9750 and 1284 near term. The Dow and S&P gave 21-day stochastic sell signals while their 12-25-9 MACDs have yet to trigger a sell signal. There's also a possibility that they may break through into their previous trading ranges of February (which for the Dow extends down to 9050). The Dow Jones Transports and NYSE Comp had failed breakouts this week. The S&P 500 managed to reach just over 15% above its 200-week moving average and pulled back each time this week. The results of overlaying the 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles so far, using the October 8, 1998 as the start of this bull run the closing price was 7731. prospective tendency for cycle Dow end date 10-week 20-week 40-week low high close change November 2 bullish bullish bullish 8595 8743 8706 +975 November 25 neutral bullish bullish 9253 9317 9314 +608 December 18 bearish neutral bullish 8859 8930 8904 -410 January 8 bullish neutral bullish 9526 9648 9643 +739 February 2 neutral bearish neutral 9198 9344 9274 -369 February 25 bearish bearish neutral 9233 9396 9366 +92 March 22 bullish bullish neutral 9900 10085 9904 +538 April 11 neutral bullish neutral May 6 bearish neutral bearish May 28 bullish neutral bearish June 21 neutral bearish bearish July 15 bearish bearish bearish In the period ending February 25, a lower low than the prior 3 1/3 week period was reached at 9060 and most stocks continued to decline more than the Dow. The latter part of April to early May may see a larger pullback toward 9000-9050 nearer the 200-day moving average at that time. A larger pullback to 8000 may also be possible which would pull the Dow back toward its long-term trendline running from 1995 and supporting last year's 7400 low.

To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/22/1999 6:31:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Hope it's still weekend when I post this. Dow 10,000 looks to me just like Dow 1,000. A challenge once met, it leaves nothing much to look for. The recent rally from the January - February trading range looks a lot like the rally last year from the April - June trading range to the July top. Last year it was the Russell 2000 that topped in April and developed a LT downtrend still in effect. Now it's the NASDAQ that topped on 2/1 and used the Dow and S&P reaching new highs only to come close to its high last Friday and sell off sharply from there. It is agreed that market breadth is bad, and New Lows count remained very high lately even as the Dow and S&P went to new highs. Not a healthy market, in fact it looks worse then last July. What I'm looking for is a correction one degree larger then last year's July- October. In EW terms- Last year's correction was Minor 4 (correcting for the bull leg from 7/96 to 7/98 which I counted as Minor 3), and the coming correction will be Intermediate 4 (correcting for the bigger Intermediate 3 bull leg from 12/94 to the present). The correlation with Dow 1000 is IMO even greater, as I believe we've started to develop a compressed version of the pattern in seen in the 1966-1972 end of Cycle 3 - higher highs and lower lows, with deteriorating A/D line. So what I'm looking for is a 35%-50% crash taking us below the October lows, but probably not much lower, with SPX 650 the extreme down side, and high 800s the most probable. In the next year or two the market could erase all the losses and reach marginally new highs (that would be Intermediate 5 of Primary 5 of Cycle 5) around Dow 10500-12000, from which the Big Bear will start. That big bear should have the magnitude of the '29-'32 "correction". Mind you, I don't know if it will be SHARP like '29, but I believe it would have the same severe impact- a Big Depression and all that follows (unemployment, crime). Signs for the beginnig of a break: - Russell 2000 breaking 389 neckline (all clear signal above 407.5). - NDX trading below 13 dma (currently 2024) - NYSE composite failing to hold over 616, and dropping below 602 support. - SPX trading under 1286 broken resistance It will end in tears ATG