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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (8545)	3/20/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Casaubon, >>>>>> I've been trying to warn a couple of people at work about the risk in the market currently. One guy is telling me he'll think about slowly moving assets into bonds: like 10% a month. The other guy is adamant that he's a "long term investor" and the price swings don't matter over time! These are intelligent people, with years of data analysis behind them, and if they won't listen you can bet the average person is well trained by now, to let someone else "handle" their retirement money for them. <<<<<< Yeah, and its that type of mentality that could promote the a substantial bear market. Subjectively, there will still be dip buying even if the DOW gets as low as 7400, last OCT's low. It may not even start the main portion of selling until then, if it gets that bad. Thats the worse case senerio, but is a possibility. Im still feel that the SPX could get back to P/E range of 15-20 in 5 years, which would be about a 33%-50% haircut. If 10,000 is the top that would be in the 5000-7700 range. On the other hand the top could arrive at a higher point. seeya