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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (6379)	3/20/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 78508

John I don't expect $20-25/bbl oil, but a consistent price of $15 will have a major impact on economies, particularly in those countries that are just now struggling to recover. It isn't necessarily oil prices rising, but the perception that oil prices will rise that can be inflationary. OPEC isn't just a few Arab countries anymore, this involves 13 of the largest producers in the world. I'll admit to being an alarmist when it comes to oil prices because I remember 1973 and 1979 so well. There is nothing that can cause inflation so quickly and inflation causes the Fed to increase interest rates. The Economist articles may be right, but they may be wrong. If wrong, Agriculture is in for some very serious problems. We just filled tanks and the price rose 3.5 cents from last time - that's 5%. I've prepaid to lock in prices because my distributor assures me that the price will be going higher. Spread that to every part of the economy because the price of everything is impacted by oil prices. I'm adjusting accordingly. If the Economist is right, I lose nothing. If wrong...? FWIW, Ron