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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Magnatizer who wrote (8556)3/20/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: umbro  Respond to of 99985
 
How Long Does the Bull Market Last?

The following table is excerpted from this week's Barron's article discussing Laslo Birinyi's opinion on the market. Laslo remains bullish. His methods are based primarily on analysis of the actual trading (tick) data. The article had the following anaylsis of market rallies and declines dating back to 1915. Birinyi equates current market conditions to leg up that ran from 1949 to 1961, and resumed
again in 1992. The full-text of the article (for wsj subscribers) is at:
interactive.wsj.com


    Begin      End   Change     Days
  2/24/15 11/21/16   103.15      636
 11/21/16 12/19/17   -40.13      393
 12/19/17  11/3/19    81.38      684
  11/3/19  8/24/21   -46.58      660
  8/24/21   9/3/29   496.51    2,932
   9/3/29 11/13/29   -47.87       71
 11/13/29  4/17/30    48.00      155
  4/17/30 12/16/30   -46.44      243
 12/16/30  2/24/31    23.40       70
  2/24/31   6/2/31   -37.38       98
   6/2/31   7/3/31    27.58       31
   7/3/31  10/5/31   -44.30       94
  10/5/31  11/9/31    35.05       35
  11/9/31   1/5/32   -39.00       57
   1/5/32   3/8/32    24.62       63
   3/8/32   7/8/32   -53.57      122
   7/8/32   9/7/32    93.91       61
   9/7/32  2/27/33   -37.25      173
  2/27/33  7/18/33   116.65      141
  7/18/33 10/19/33   -22.35       93
 10/19/33   2/5/34    31.24      109
   2/5/34  7/26/34   -22.78      171
  7/26/34  3/10/37   127.34      958
  3/10/37  3/31/38   -49.10      386
  3/31/38  11/9/38    59.76      223
  11/9/38  4/11/39   -21.72      153
  4/11/39  9/12/39    26.00      154
  9/12/39  6/10/40   -28.27      272
  6/10/40  11/7/40    23.17      150
  11/7/40  4/28/42   -32.54      537
  4/28/42  5/29/46   128.69    1,492
  5/29/46  6/13/49   -23.95    1,111
  6/13/49 12/13/61   354.76    4,566
 12/13/61  6/26/62   -27.10      195
  6/26/62   2/9/66    85.74    1,324
   2/9/66  10/7/66   -25.21      240
  10/7/66  12/3/68    32.37      788
  12/3/68  5/26/70   -35.94      539
  5/26/70  1/11/73    66.63      961
  1/11/73  12/6/74   -45.08      694
  12/6/74  9/21/76    75.69      655
  9/21/76  2/28/78   -26.87      525
  2/28/78  4/27/81    37.99    1,154
  4/27/81  8/12/82   -24.13      472
  8/12/82  8/25/87   250.41    1,839
  8/25/87 10/19/87   -36.14       55
 10/19/87  7/16/90    72.56    1,001
  7/16/90 10/11/90   -21.16       87
 10/11/90  3/15/99   321.07    3,077

         Number Average Change Average Days
 Rallies:    25         109.75          930
 Declines:   24         -34.79          310




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