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Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (105)	3/20/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 477

I'm not questioning the numbers you had (I have mailing here to check) it just the presentation of inverted ratios apparently for its dramatic effect. Many ongoing enterprises considered healthy (and awarded hefty market valuations) have either negative net income or income that are a small fraction of interest expense. The change of debt is not a continuous process - indeed their rating prohibits it. The debt is long term and in fact renegotiated since October to allow for the deferral. Debt payment .vs. net income should then be considered for the income of more normal conditions - average net in first 9 months of 1998 was 0.42 .vs 0.25 from Sept or 0.12(?) latest. Obviously if you figure conditions will only worsen in the next 5 years then you have to downgrade the assumptions and figure the time until a new infusion is needed - irregardless of the heritage or genetic makeup of the president. I think the Hvide fleet is comparatively modern and well conditioned, although I wouldn't know how to estimate this from the cap depreciation numbers.