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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (8363)	3/20/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Message 8186006

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (8363)	3/21/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Lawrence, You had made some statements about global economies and I asked what you thought the effect of rising oil prices would have. You responded that it would be inflationary but would also indicate an increase in global demand. I disagreed because I felt there were many factors other than demand that could cause a rise (OPEC, Middle East disruption, etc.), but at that time did not feel I could adequately defend my opinion or that it was worth a discussion. IMO - A rise to $15 won't have a serious impact on economies, but the situation becomes more susceptible to some other event. The rise to $15 will be inflationary. With salaries and wages fairly stagnant, this would reduce consumer spending enough to negate any need for the Fed to increase rates. (I might also point out that the US is doing it's part to sustain demand as we're using millions of gallons daily in Iraq and are preparing to use a few more million in Serbia/Kosovo. That's in addition to the large SUVs and other gas guzzlers we're buying.) My only reason for posting the Reuters article was to point out the situation relative to it's potential impact on investing. I watch oil closely as 1979 did serious damage to my financial situation. I don't intend to let it happen again. FWIW, Ron