To: Rick who wrote (543 ) 3/20/1999 6:27:00 PM From: Rick Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 782
The Intangibles and The Takeover Possibilities - Part 5 Finally, you might wonder why I would buy CATP at this point, even given the favorable valuation at the reduced price. Especially given my clear disrespect for Mr. Sims and his cronies, you might wonder what puts me over the top to actually buy this thing as it's world come crashing in upon itself. First, I believe that this recent earnings event should shake out all of the weak holders that bought the stock on empty hope, speculation, and fantasy. Once they are gone, we are left with buyers and holders that understand a good bargain. It seems to me that this event might be the final blowoff in a long process of eliminating speculative excess, and should now position the stock price for growth. Second, I believe that one way or another Mr. Sims will be leaving. If it is due to a sellout, then I make money. If he is forced out by the board and shareholders, the stock should go up simply as an affirmation that the current situation was not acceptable . If, on the other hand, it looks like Mr. Sims is staying, I will simply sell all of my shares at whatever price is available. Thirdly, Mr. Sims (and Toscanini) recent insider sales ( surely based on knowledge of the bad numbers) so close to the negative announcement is so bizarre, that any executive that wished to have any credibility with employees, shareholders, and analysts would not execute such a stupid act. This suggests to me that Mr. Sims no longer desires such credibility, and is a clue that he will be gone shortly - one way or another. White collar criminals are usually very clever; Sims is no exception - I won't try to predict exactly what he was up to with this move, but it is highly suggestive to me that he will be gone. If he simply thought he could get away with such an irresponsible act without repercussions, then it is evidence that he is certifiably insane, as opposed to simply a greaseball (my bet is with greaseball, but he may be insane). Fourthly, the general value of its assets - an army of skilled technology laborers and the business processes to sell, bill and collect for services remains a scarce and valueable good. As long as Mr. Sims leaves shortly, this asset should remain relatively intact. END. One last thing. Have I mentioned that I think Mr. Sims should leave ?