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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (8596)	3/21/1999 11:59:00 AM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Thanks for the great "Challenge" that's led to even better-than-normal reading here lately. As a long-time lurker, you've finally goaded me into giving my two-cents (a precisely correct value for what's to come, actually :-) I've been a full-time investor for the past few years; putting in 8-16 hours a day at it. I trade fairly frequently, though I'm not a day-trader and hope never to be one. I use TA, FA (ok, ok, I'd <<like>> to use FA, but since it's no longer sensible or useful, why bother?) and everything else out there. I preserve capital but agressively average up/down when positions go my way. I take positions on a case-by-case position. There's no underlying philosophical bent that I apply to my trades. One might be a purely technical buy/sell, another might be momentum/volume, whatever. Despite making and losing money in many inventive ways, I've done ok. That said, I have a few points: -- Since last July, I have found the "bear" camp to be consistently more rational and intelligent. Gross overvalution in this market is indisputable. -- Though I haven't yet found anyone who can accurately and consistently "name waves," I believe that Pretcher's detailing of Elliot's wave theory is compelling, profound and true. -- I think a BK of some sort is inevitable, natural and perfectly normal. -- As I hope most will agree, "news" is what most strongly moves prices. That said, we have historically declining earnings that I expect to continue for reasons anyone can easily list, as the market continues to become increasingly a very <<unsafe>> place for capital at risk. So, for the first time since I've been doing this full-time, I'm almost completely in cash. It's a weird, uncomfortable, but marvelously pleasant feeling, if that makes any sense! If I "don't get it," I don't want to play with it -- at least for now. As I look back on my years of doing this, I was lucky to be "first in" and "first out" enough of the time that I don't need to live by an alarm clock or "perfomance reviews" :) My final take is that, for me, anyway, I'm "off the table," and feel it's the right place to be now. Tomorrow may be different. But I suspect not. Thanks again, everyone, for all the great posts. Sorry if I "lowered the average" with this one! doug

To: HairBall who wrote (8596)	3/21/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

my take: i doubt we will have a black monday anytime soon but i do feel the blue chip techs are going to continue to get hit.....if intc is next to get a warning like ibm did on friday's IMO we will see one nasty tech correction.....i'm avoiding this sector for position plays but i will day trade them.. current holdings: OSI pair ....

To: HairBall who wrote (8596)	3/21/1999 8:31:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, OK..OK...You've driven me out of my cave...Woken me from my nap. And you know how angry bears are when they are rustled in their sleep!! <g> Thus, I'm gonna have to call for a 20%+ correction in the next 2 weeks!! That'll teach you! :^p My key weekly cycle indicators are calling for a significant top between last Wednesday and this coming Tuesday. I believe friday's open was it. Confirmation of a plunge will be if this Monday's low is taken out at anytime during the next 10 calendar days, as i have a 26 day cycle low due on Monday. My favorite wave read says Friday's opening high was the conclusion of 5 waves up from the October 8th low, thus completing primary wave 1 of cycle wave 1 in this new Supercycle. The downswipe on friday was the beginning of an ABC corrective Primary wave 2, which will take roughly 3.5 months to complete, and will level the markets by 15 to 25%. But October's low has absolutely NO chance of being penetrated. Friday's candlestick on index futures charts resulted in a "dark cloud cover" that morphed into a "bearish engulfing" pattern. This is the most bearish of any possible candlestick formation, and not your typical "bearish engulfing" pattern. The reason is because prices gapped above the high on Thursday, which was a LONG day, and then closed below Thursday's open. This makes it the strongest version of a "dark cloud cover" possible. A normal "dark cloud cover" formation signals lights out, party is over. This one signaled all that plus razed the building to leave no evidence! <g> David P.S. More warm porridge: Message 8441522