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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (8601)	3/21/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: Doug R	Respond to of 99985

Hi folks, I just got my invitation to toss some thoughts around so here they are; There seems to be an awful lot of bearish consensus here. From my own perspective I don't really see much to worry about...yet. That advance decline chart looks awfully suspicious to me at this exact point. If you run vertical lines from market moves down through the AD line, you should notice that it moves WITH the market instead of leading it. True that it hasn't confirmed new highs by going higher but in this bull market it should be viewed more like an MACD...as long as the indicator is over a threshold, any move up, no matter where it is in relation to other recent peaks, will get shorts into a LOT of trouble very quickly. Now the AD chart has hit a point where it is definitely low but I would say still above a threshold where the market is still, for now anyway, on the bullish side of the fence. It has moved in a way that "looks" less tied to the direction of price over the last couple weeks than it has for a while but the longer term movement in it doesn't quite allow for the very recent activity to mean anything more than a possible "reset" that would be in place after tomorrow or a possible quick "shakeout" coming up any time in the next 5 to 6 weeks. A move up from here, and there's the possibility of a trend breakout to the upside. A trend break out to the upside would have a lot more to say about the market than the static number thaqt represents the indicator's position. Of course, a move down followed by solid verification and we get a 550 point pullback. Of the other stuff I look at, I get a profile of a technical reset rather than a breakdown. Im still, since the last time I posted here, focused on that relatively large inverted head and shoulders pattern that was broken to the upside on strong volume. The volume has remained high as the market moved higher and that should be a major consideration. From the short term technical stuff I get Monday as most likely down (-120 to -150 at some point during the day looks about right) but with a very good probability that the low on Monday will be the low for the week. The technical activity of the market for the rest of the week will have much more to say than that of the previous week did for now. A major piece of window dressing in Japan has just completed and $ from profit takers in that market would swing it over here on the first whiff of strength. To the downside, the Dow chart has another one of those trend line created triangles on it. The neck line of the IHS, the up trend line from the October low to the low on 3/3 from where the latest breakout started and again, the last short term down trend line before the recent "top". The range of this triangle is from 9590 to 9400 from the first week of April through the first week of May. Any move below that would be trouble. Any recovery from there, if it's tested, would lead to a major rally. So stick to your indicators and such for a little longer before you "decide" which way the market will "trend" from here. You may find yourselves chasing a solid rally. For myself, I'm expecting a dip to 9750 will be all the Dow sees to the downside for now with upside potential still greater than that for the downside. And that trying to dance between the technical raindrops until direction is better confirmed would be an expensive proposition. Doug R

To: HairBall who wrote (8601)	3/21/1999 4:54:00 PM
From: Eddy Blinker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Is there a correlation between Anthropology and MDA? LG, Thank you for asking. Not above question but if you would have asked it -is there? Yes there is. In a roundabout way. But that is another subject for another thread under the title "Are average womens" according to their brain weights indeed less intelligent as the " average man "? Allow me to pause for a commercial before I answer your questions relating to MDA. Neural Networks will eventually run this sorry show on earth. Nobody will or can escape. LG, we are no Market Maven. In fact my partner is a mathematical correct lunatic and I am a gambler who used to be a salesman exclusively for that purpose. Selling up to 11am and then off to the track. MDA or TA what is that? Through my habits I became interested in neural networking which had to be better as sort and look with QA. And sure enough it was, is and will be the future for presently totally overlooked opportunities for all types of commerce and personal lives. Yes for a decade or so we still have to live with the "never people" the old guard of monopolists and their armies of false tuners and players. They say a computer has no consciousness and therefore it can never function as a replacement for the human brain. Well there are all wrong, because neural networks have what it takes to make rational decisions based on their dynamic self developing learning capabilities in concert with their never aging memory banks. "They " having sold us false Hollywood tears and U-boats in swimming pools for decades are now speaking about the lack consciousness in a computer.Let's drink to their upcoming unemployment for life. Now tonight! You challenged the market gurus. All genuine and not so genuine. What did you get? Numbers from yesterday, charts showing the DOW back to 1929. And more numbers connected to ifs and well oiled fence doors enabling the Indian givers to return in a flash to proclaim told you so! But people don't trust words nowadays. They want pictures,speak charts. Making money and dancing on every marriage in town. Well those days are gone, to be replaced by put up -win or lose. Why should the digital revolution spare the circus ushers? Yesterdays credibility has to be verified anew every so often that's what I think would work out for everyone. Speaking of membership fees or whatever in exchange for our 30 day forecast charts we can not charge anything. We only made three charts so far and our credibility is 0. We understand. A few month ago I was so naive that I thought with one dollar per chart one could haul away lorry loads of green bucks via the internet. But when a lady asked about a refund in case we are wrong I forgot quickly all about my lapse into this folly. But there is another way to skin the cat and the beauty about this road to bucks galore is much more beneficial for everyone concerned. The public and the gurus everywhere. The game plan is based on the competitive spirit coupled with the American Way spelling it "Contest ". Every month contenders display their 30 day forecast charts on the net in a chart format, just like we do or have done. We have 4 different ways to select from. Any index worldwide and the winner get's a big $$$$$$$$ price from a sponsor under the banner "if you build it they will come". And to top it all off one could get one of those stock IPO wizzards and have a real go at it. Hope I have answered all your questions. Regards, Eddy Blinker PS.Until then we invite anyone to compete with us. We will do the Nasdaq Q next followed by the German DAX.