Response to Ron: #1.
Re: Do NOT rely on Mill's assessment and predictions, re: the grid. His is a 'stand-alone' prediction.
As opposed to your "stand-alone" predictions, based upon the "stand-alone" predictions of others??
....Ron, since you do NOT NOT NOT understand the systemic/interconnected/interdependent and cascading nature and effects of Y2K, any further debate with you on these issues is meaningless, unproductive, and futile and a waste of my valuable time, until you sufficiently inform and educate yourself of these real-life concepts.
However, I will respond to your questions and points here out of courtesty.
Perhaps, somewhat accurate in itself, but because of the interconnectivity/interdependency factors, and the domino effect, it should be considered a ultra- best-case senario.
So you know more than someone who has worked in the Utilities industry?? I haven't heard Rick Cowles making the same dire predictions you are making.
.....Cowles is acknowledge by some as the #1 expert in this area.
The most recent quote I have read attributed to him is about a one-month long period of disruptions/blackout, with about a one-year period of more minor problems, similiar to those experienced by 3rd world countries.
But, as with Mills, his is a 'stand-alone' prediction. Which I would accept as the closest thing to the gospel, if only the grid was at risk. But, he is not an expert in any (that I have discovered) other sectors of society, so his expert opinion can not be relied on any more than Mill's or anyone else projecting a 'stand-alone' opinion in any sector.. thus, all such must be considered an 'ultra- best-case senario', only!
What happens to the grid when telecom goes down?
It seems to me the greatest threat to both is if either one fail.
....Wrong! That is the 2nd greatest threat! The greatest threat is when water delivery systemps are disrupted, due to the survival-threatening and obvious cascading factors (some of which I have described in past posts)....
But, your statement at least shows you have at least a nominal grasp of the crucial interconnectivity factor....
Here's a good source for the latest test results performed by the gov't (including those my close associate is reporting to me):
.......I do not rely in the least on govt test results. (1) they are also stand-alone, in any case. (2) NAME 1 UTILITY COMPANY IN THE US, EVEN THE WORLD THAT HAS BEEN 3RD PARTY CERTIFIED TO BE END-END COMPLIANT!!! NAME 1! THERE IS ONLY 9+ MONTHS TO 2000, AND ONLY 5 MONTHS UNTIL GPS ROLLOVER!! ITS TOO LATE!
FOR SOFTWARE ALONE, I YEAR MIMIMUM FOR TESTING IS NECESSARY!
(3) WHAT DO ANY GOVT TESTS SHOW RE: EMBEDDED CHIPS AND SYSTEMS?
ustreas.gov
204.106.16.246
What happens to the grid when banking is disrupted, and the workers, including emergency repair, can't be paid?
How were people paid during the bank runs and financial crises that have occurred in the past?? Do you really believe that a emergency repairmen are so selfish they will refuse to work? Do you really believe they won't be more motivated than everyone else to fix what they can so their lives can return to normal?
....Should I refer you to books about the realities of life during the bank holidays of the 30s?
What % of emergency repairmen will stay at home to protect their families during the concurrent civil unrest?
What % of them will have sufficient gas every day to go make repairs when gas supplies are disrupted?
What % of them will stay home thinking as only one person, what difference can he make, vs. other survival priories being far more vital to use his time on?
You speak of a perfect world senario, not real world reality, esp, when chaos comes, civil unrest threatens all, he and his family are in shock from the disruptions, when he has lost his assets, due to banking/stock market crashing, when he and his family has little, if any, safe water/food left, etc, etc.
You are apparently not understanding enough of human and mass behavior during chaotic and dangerous times.
What happens to the grid when civil unrest occurs in each locale adjacent to the plants?
Security perimeters with armed guards and military patrols to maintain order. Why would someone loot a power plant instead of the downtown retail stores?
......I agree with those statements (the 2nd one did not address anything I stated).... in theory., e.g., articles have just come out re: security fencing being constructed around a very large area of LA,
and obviously, many other large cities to follow, if not already started....
In my opinion, civil order maintained by the military is the cities only hope for survival. My statement was regarding civil unrest in all areas emcompassing where the emergency and normal personnel would be living. However, I predict that the emergency workers will have to be, out of survival necessity for themselves and the grid, housed and guarded at their stations by the military...at least, that should be the plan.
Furthur, expect the utility companies to be nationalized!
But, then there is also the problem of the rural generating/distribution/delivery plants...What about them? There are not nearly enough military to guard even many of those!
What happens to the grid when water delivery systems are disrupted, and x number of utility-related personnel have not stored sufficient/any water reserves?
They will receive what they need from the emergency response teams. They is no shortage of water in the US (even in Arizona). It's just not potable unless purified. This is a problem that exists primarily in heavily populated cities than in the countryside.
....totally unrealistic, logistically.....again, you do NOT understand the interdependency/interconnectivity sytemtic nature enough to inform you otherwise of why your statement is not logistically workable! However, you do acknowledge this senario in heavily populated areas!
OK. What % of plants are located in these areas? If no water, and thus, insufficent emergency and normal personnel left to fix and operate the plants in these areas, what happens to the grid in those, then other adjacent areas....please don't then expand this by saying 'islanding' will solve that ...
What happens to the grid when the food chain is disrupted, and same senario as with water supplies, above?
Since when do power plants need to eat or drink?
.....I hope you are joking here...if not, please go back and carefully re-read my statement!
end Part 1 of response...
end part 1 of response to response......
Ken "its too................!"
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