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To: goldsnow who wrote (30425)	3/22/1999 8:11:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116791

biz.yahoo.com re anti china sentiment

To: goldsnow who wrote (30425)	3/23/1999 6:05:00 AM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116791

03/22/99: The Yen, The Dollar & The CRB PAUL KANGAS: With me now is Bob Hafer, managing director of the Bridge Commodities Research Bureau in Chicago. And welcome back, Bob. BOB HAFER, MANAGING DIR., BRIDGE COMMODITY RESEARCH BUREAU: Thank you Paul. KANGAS: I understand you've discovered a new relationship between your Bridge Commodity Research Bureau Index and two major currencies. Tell us about it. HAFER: Well, we discovered an interesting correlation between the yen dollar and the CRB Index. KANGAS: Now we happen to have a chart of that. Let's have a look at it. And we see almost step for step following one another. HAFER: The part of that chart you want to focus on begins right around Christmas, around December 21st or 22nd when both the CRB. and the Japanese yen began to rally. That rally ended abruptly on January 11 and was completely retraced and in fact, the markets fell to new lows. KANGAS: OK now. The other major currency is what? HAFER: The Brazilian real. KANGAS: OK. Let's have a look at a chart on that and we see a close correlation there. Not as close as the yen, but very much so. HAFER: It was the decline in the Brazilian real that began on January 10th and 11th that really dragged commodity prices down. But what we find interesting, Paul, is that it seems right now that the ebb and flow of sentiment about the future of the Japanese economy is playing with commodity prices on a daily basis. As you can see from the first chart, the markets were moving in lock step. KANGAS: So the reason why these two currencies are so relevant. HAFER: These are two major forces in the commodities, the Japanese being large importers of commodities and the Brazilians of course being major exporters. KANGAS: Might this be a signal that the CRB Index is bottoming out? HAFER: Well, it could well be, Paul. As the current feeling around the world is that perhaps the worst is behind Japan. We've seen a two-week rally not only in their currency but in their stock market. So it's entirely possible that the commodity prices are on their way up as we've also seen an equivalent to a rally in the CRB Index. KANGAS: Is this an inflation warning? HAFER: I wouldn't go that far, Paul. As the CRB Index was sitting at 240 prior to the Asian crisis. So think we have a long way to go in commodity prices before there'll be any concerns about inflation. KANGAS: Are you seeing, very briefly Bob, are you seeing any similar actions with any other major currencies? HAFER: Not particularly. The one to watch would be the euro. But that market's been primarily down to flat since it started. KANGAS: All right, thanks very much, Bob. HAFER: My pleasure, Paul. KANGAS: My guest Bob Hafer, managing director of the Bridge Commodities Research Bureau in Chicago. Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. (c)1999 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.