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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (8644)	3/22/1999 12:13:00 AM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

I am staying up late just to hear a definitive road 35 killer analysis just like you asked others to do. What do you have? Vitas

To: HairBall who wrote (8644)	3/22/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: Skipperr	Respond to of 99985

LG - Just a little drop in this, your thread's, giant pool of wisdom: Looks to me like we can have a short-term up move: libertyresearch.com decisionpoint.com Best regards, Skipperr

To: HairBall who wrote (8644)	3/22/1999 1:38:00 AM
From: marcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, nice job raising thread info this weekend! I'm looking for an academic book, dare say textbook, that gives statistical analysis of technical indicators (chart formations, macd, rsi, etc.). Does anyone have a good reference? tia

To: HairBall who wrote (8644)	3/22/1999 3:23:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Well, I hate to chicken out but I had to unexpectedly work all weekend (my second job, not the military one, just so you don't think we are nuking Bosnia or anything). Therefore I don't feel I was able to do enough research to state with any certainty what is coming. The sector index charts all look like crud and there was a definitive volume spike once the selling started which is bearish. There is very little that looks bullish short term with the exception of a few glowing upgrades on many of the most over bought stocks. While this could have a short term positive affect on them, it tells me the brokerages are getting ready to ditch them and they want the J6Ps to buy as they sell. However, one day does not a trend make and especially on triple witching Friday. The OEX was sky-rocketing and we all knew the OEX max pain level was around 647. The heavy selling made the OEX close around 650 which is close enough for government work <g>. There was a heavy churning of options at lower prices on Wednesday and Thursday so calls were probably sold to the J6Ps then and the puts were covered during the Friday rally to 10085 and all remaining contracts closed near the Max Pain so if any big banks got stuck, it was their own fault, How convenient!!! I think the most important thing to watch for since there seems to be an agreement that Monday and Tuesday will have a downward bias and then there is a split as to if we will bounce or continue down is to see if this pullback resembles a fall or a bull flag as the first couple days go by. I think the street really wants a 10K close before they surrender to earnings pullbacks and a pause and slight dip could just be a temptation for the shorts to add fuel for the push over should it come later in the week. Those wanting to get in on the "top" should use good mental stops in case of reversal and those more cautious should watch for the flag versus drop signs. As I stated in an earlier post, the DOW, SPX etc is great for tracking over all market activity but can mask the internals. I feel the sector charts are more revealing since it is harder to hide heavy selling while only proping up a few heavy weights. Oil will also probably skew the large indexes Monday since an agreement seems to be all but certain so a bounce should be expected there unless it becomes a sell the news event. TA wise I was hot for puts on the paper sector but IP got a few upgrades by DLJ and others and a few other of my targets were also being touted so it may take a few days to undo the effects of that. The BTK Biotech was another area of interest but as another poster stated, this is a TA type thing and he showed good FA on why this may be a bad idea. Just about any sector may be a good target and as Don said, the stocks are probably better than the indexes although I like trading indexes so I don't have to worry about single stock news as much. The volume on the options is prohibitive though so you have to be VERY careful and you WILL be at the mercy of the MMs. Ther eis no splitting the bid and ask on these and I have had them play games many times moving the bid away from me when I am trying to sell. Therefore you have to make darn sure you ae right and be one of the first out the door as the trend ends. If there are charts you want to see, let me know and maybe Monty will let me send a few more. You name it, I probably have it <g> LG - When you were talking about setting up an actual MDA site, would this be 100% public or semi-private or what? I may be interested in helping out depending on what you have in mind and how little I know about it. Good Luck, Lee