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Strategies & Market Trends : Screening for Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LemonHead who wrote (32)3/22/1999 6:27:00 AM
From: Larry Grzemkowski  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 45
 
Keith

Hope this helps.

Year 1 $1 times 1.3 (30% gain) = $1.30
Year 2 $1.30 times 1.3 = $1.69
Year 3 $1.69 times 1.3 = $2.197
Year 4 $2.197 times 1.3 = $2.8561
Year 5 $2.8561 times 1.3 = $3.7129

Larry G



To: LemonHead who wrote (32)3/22/1999 8:15:00 AM
From: JZGalt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45
 
Keith,

Larry answered you question about where $3.71 came from.

As far as "cheap" enough. This has nothing to do with any graph (except to pick off the latest eps number).

I am strictly looking at the calculation:

5 year projected growth > 1.4 X p/e based on 12 month forward eps

So in the case of COMS:

5 year projected growth = 21.3%
12 month forward earnings = $1.28
Current price = $24.375
p/e based on 12 month forward eps = 19
1.4 X p/e based on 12 month forward eps = 19 X 1.4 = 26.6

Since COMS growth rate of 21.3% is not greater than 26.6, COMS is not "cheap enough".

So when does COMS get "cheap enough"?

( 21.3% / 1.4 ) X $1.28 = $19.47

Remember I am looking for extremely cheap stocks relative to their potential. I'm not saying COMS will hit $19 or that COMS is a bad investment. It is just that I'll get excited about COMS if it does. <grin>

----
Dave