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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karim Allana who wrote (24558)	3/22/1999 4:37:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Karim Allana-- Thanks for posting your observations, I think we may be entering in a phase of where economy may be slowing down after a good run, although I would like to see some evidence in economic releases over next few weeks! If it so would be more positive for the market in long run although initially NDX will be hardest hit but a slow down has lesser ramifications than rising inflation, that is going to be the scourage of the market, if it ever rises its ugly head. Probably in S&P 500 the stocks with P/E multiples in excess of 45 are nearly 50, I would like my exposure in these stocks to be reduced by lifting most of my heavily in the monies by out of the money calls, I will only replace out of the monies above 2109 double close on NDX. I have been selling nearly all my heavily in the monies on Friday since DOW was unable to stay above 10,000, although I will not short until 2047 is taken out on NDX for a play to 1900 low on NDX. I would like to think that if NDX weakens the other 450 stocks in S&P 500 with multiples of 20 will provide some help to the market. I will now be watching Wiltshire 5000 index and RUT a break of 388 on RUT will be negative as it will signal a broad move down. What happens to SOX at 372 is important for me and a test of 855 on BKX should hold. If we take this 372 out on two closing basis on SOX and break of 855 we have a perfect setting for a retracement. On SOX 330 will be in the offing and 830 on BKX is possible, I see that market likes to create some values pre-earnings and the only way to do it is to make some room in hi-fliers, I have decided to take the money off the table and replace the calls only if I have double close above 2110 on NDX or DOW rocket to 10,140 and stay up there for two days. I have closed all my puts in strength and have lifted my deep in the monies, I have made a decision to play the long side with big leverage but only with the out of the money calls at stake, I am also thinking if we close today below 2045 or 1292 on June contact, I will like to sell some covered calls to protect my core also, moreover I will on break of 1292 on June contract (a single close a must) buy some 1230 puts.. I was not happy with this DOW inability to close above 10000 and I would now like to see that filling of 1051 gap on SP99H.. I will only change my stance if I have this 2110 on NDX taken out.. Little cautious with most of the profit from that trading move from 1218 on to 1330 off the table, I am out of bullish stance and will wait for the direction, if my 2050 support is out I am quite sure we go lower and hence I am going to see to it that this move if it comes does not come without me.. I have enjoyed this run up immensely. May be I am out of some of my positions like MER AOL TXN SUNW a little early but the it is always good to take profits of the table, my father advised me you never go bust taking profits, right now that is exactly what I am doing, leaving the party a little early, but will heavily play on upside through indexes as they are easier to lift in case of move against you.. On highs I don't let my ego stand in front of the market, I will rather leave to let others enjoy the big move.. P.S. I had the pleasure to meet your brother in KYC with his wife, great couple, give my best regards to Alishaw when you talk to him. He was long JBL calls and hope he made good on a great call by Pirani.. Love and best regards.. I also happen know your father when he was a Minister of Education in 73, I came to see him at your house on Sunset Boulevard as a young man.. Small world, I have always been very impressed with your father, I followed his career very closely and remember distinctively when someone predicted that he is going to be the President of the country one day..

To: Karim Allana who wrote (24558)	3/22/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 50167

Karim: Great grass roots post... Following the employment trends gives us a key to future economic direction... Your interviews are hinting at an economic slowdown among the broader universe of companies... Jim

To: Karim Allana who wrote (24558)	3/22/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Respond to of 50167

Karim, Thanks for the post. Your post reflects a trend. But last week I got a different signal. I was attending a conference in Houston and was staying in one of the Marriott's and had a conversation with the waitress there. She is from Philipines and works in Marriott restraunt. She also does another job as a administrative assistant for her friends consulting company which consults in web development and things like that. She was curious about this conference and asked some details. So I asked about her curiosity and she explained that she likes internet, AOL and Ebay and almost got addicted. She spends long ours at night in AOL and Ebay and that she is very happy with the ISDN line in her friends company. What struck me in that conversation is that E-commerce is reaching a level where people are getting addicted to like in the case of brainless TV tube. So it is a question of time before everybody who can afford can get connected to the net. Unlike TV, which provides more than 98% of the time garbage, the net provides a lot more stuff (both quality and garbage) and people can easily get addicted to net. So this new industry will keep pushing ahead and replacing old technology and model of business. But I have to agree with you whether this exuberance will continue for ever is a question to all. I think steam is getting out slowly. -Nat