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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (8653)	3/22/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Don, LG and gang, Lots of action over the weekend- I noticed the BK thread was very active too. Could this be some kind of sign? Enjoyed all the analysis, and wish that I could add something significant to it- but man, you folks are really raising the bar. <g> I am still firmly in the bear camp. The big picture today is more clearly than ever a full blown Stock Market mania, the likes of which has not been seen in our lifetimes. I know that I'm starting to sound like a stuck record (or CD), but this is THE MOST dangerous market I have ever seen. I am in agreement with Arik, that this will end in tears. (99% sure). The other 1% is in case it really is different this time, and the 'new era' of valuation actually applies. Is SI bearish? I don't think so, > Last 7 Days (230 votes) > Bull/Bear Ratio = 2.74 > Bulls: 148, Bears: 54, Neutral: 28 The great majority of SI is just as starry-eyed with the stock market as the general public. Just check out the Dell thread for example. Those folks just do not understand that the Dell party is over. You are right that several folks made good calls on the last top and bottom. Don't know how long alot of folks here have been trading, but Joe Granville has been making market calls and observations for 42 years (that's YEARS, not weeks)- and he says he is currently as bearish as he has ever been in 42 years. So don't turn your back on the A/D line- it will come back and bite you. Saw some comments about how many folks have ingrained beliefs that bad times must follow good ones. I don't think that is as big a problem for traders as 'linear thinking'. Linear thinking is the extrapolation of a current trend to a straight line into the future. This is how most economists, politicians, and average folks project the future. They take the recent trend, and project it into infinity. aka- falling interest rates will continue indefinitely, or the stock market will continue to blast upwards for eternity. History has shown us that economic, social and political trends are cyclical in nature, not linear. If this were not so, the whole world would gravitate to extremes, shifting the balances, and creating mass disparity and chaos. Cycles are not just relevant, they are a necessity. OK, guess that's enough philosophy for a monday morning- Good luck to all, TW