Stock Analysis of Netegrity (by VectorVest) reveals pure hyped fraud, investors insanity and ignorance.
Here is the analysis as of yesterday's close:
>> Thank you for requesting an analysis of Netegrity Inc. from VectorVest ProGraphics.
The ticker symbol for Netegrity Inc. is NETE. NETE is traded on the NASDAQ.
PRICE: NETE closed on 03/22/1999 at $11.25 per share.
VALUE: NETE has a Value of $0.6 per share. Value is the foundation of the VectorVest
system. It is a measure of what
a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend
payments, dividend growth rate,
and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in
the computation of Value.
When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and
inflation increase, Value goes down.
Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): NETE has an RV of 0.01. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 0.01 is
very poor. RV reflects
the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment
in AAA Corporate Bonds.
Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV
greater than 1.00 when its
Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings
growth rate are above average. In
some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well below
Price. This happens when a stock
has an exemplary record of financial performance and an above average earnings growth
rate. In this case, the stock is
currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future earnings growth to
drive the stock's price higher. This
information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price
appreciation potential, but it also
solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above average
capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): NETE has an RS rating of 0.65. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of
0.65 is poor. VectorVest
looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a
company) rather than that of a
purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the company). From this perspective,
consistency of financial and
operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key
factors used in the evaluation of
Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity
and other factors are also
considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to
2.00. A stock with an RS greater
than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS
less than 1.00 is less predictable
and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): NETE has an RT rating of 1.33. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of
1.33 is excellent. RT is
a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and
dynamics of a stock's price
behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price
performance of the stock. Once a stock's
Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term.
If the trend dissipates, RT will
gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial
turning point. When warranted, it
will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the stock's Price is in an
uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's
Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): NETE has a VST-Vector rating of 0.86. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
VST of 0.86 is poor.
VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high
RV values often have low RS
values, or stocks withlow RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks
with the best combinations of
Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this problem. It
combines a set of forces into a
single indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest
VST-Vector have the best
combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average
capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): NETE has a GRT of -10 % per year. This is very poor. GRT stands
for forecasted Earnings
Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT
trends very carefully. If the
GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's
Price will increase more slowly,
cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): NETE has a Hold recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative
effect of all the
VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors
buy safe, undervalued stocks
which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in
price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately 10%
above a recent low, and an "S"
signal when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS
stocks are favored toward receiving
"B" REC's, and sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: NETE has a Stop-Price of 9.90 per share. This is 1.35 or 12.0% belowits
current closing Price.
VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and
calculates a Stop-Price for each stock.
These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are
fine-tuned according to each stock's
fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is above
its Stop-Price, and an "S"
recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): NETE does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on annual, regular,
cash dividends indicated by
the most recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends,
etc., generally are not included in
Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): NETE has a DY of 0 percent. This is above the current market
average of percent. DY equals
100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): NETE has an EY of -2.07%. This is above the current market average
of %. EY equals 100 x
(EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): NETE has an EPS of $-0.23 per share. EPS stands for leading
12 months Earnings Per
Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings
performance and traditional fiscal and/or
calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): NETE has a P/E ratio of -48.31. This ratio is computed daily
based upon Price
and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): NETE has a GPE of 0. This ratio suggests that This ratio
suggests that NETEis
overvalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares
Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to
Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater
than 1.00, and vice-versa.
VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 0.01
for NETEis very poor.
DS (Dividend Safety): NETE has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is
defined as the assurance
that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the
foreseeable future. Stocks with DS
values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): NETE does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest system
that pay dividends
are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS
values above 50 are above average in
safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS
values below 50 are below average
in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): NETE has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth is a subtle
yet important
indicator of a company's historical financial performance and the board's current outlook on
the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): NETE has a YSG-Vector of 0. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00,
an YSG-Vector rating of 0 is very poor. VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY
and GROWTH into a single
parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with
the highest YSG-Vector values
have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to
buy for above average current
income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: NETE traded 1384700 shares on 03/22/1999.
AVG VOL(100)s: NETE has an Average Volume of 516340. Average Volume is 50 day
moving average of daily
volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: NETE had a Volume change of 168.2% from its 50 day moving average volume.
OPEN: NETE opened trading at $10.81 per share on 03/22/1999.
HIGH: NETE traded at a high of $12.44 per share on 03/22/1999.
LOW: NETE traded at a low of $10.13 per share on 03/22/1999.
CLOSE: NETE Closed trading at $11.25 per share on 03/22/1999.
% PRC: NETE showed a Price change of 11.8% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: NETEhas been assigned to the Software (Business) Group. VectorVest
classifies stocks into over 190
Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
NETE has well below average safety with well below average upside potential. It reflects a
stock which is likely to give well
below average, inconsistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward stocks. We suggest that
Prudent investors buy enough high
Relative Value, high Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their
portfolios above 1.00. As you do
this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
Not a bad combination.
Thank you for your interest in VectorVest ProGraphics. |
