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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1646)	3/22/1999 2:06:00 PM
From: Valueman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

YOU may be getting somwhere, whereas I see only classic Tero "avoid and spin."

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1646)	3/23/1999 3:02:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

Tero, //So what are the CDMA growth projections in Russia, Australia, etc. based on? The US and Korean subscriber growth. And which markets do these new CDMA countries actually most resemble? Singapore and China... places where GSM has a big headstart. That is why there is such disagreement on the CDMA growth in Asia, Russia, etc.// I suppose I could answer your questions in the hope that maybe you will answer a couple of mine some time. The CDMA growth projections in Australia will be based on a share of the conversion from GSM, which in rural Australia will be heaps because cdmaOne gives the coverage which GSM can't do [well, it could with enough power, extra base-stations etc but that would cost too much]. In cities such as Brisbane, cdmaOne will also dominate the analogue conversion because people won't want to be stuck in the legacy GSM networks. The word will be out that GSM is out of date. Sure, it will be a process of attrition, but handsets turn over quickly [we do agree on that one] and low end handsets are popular because people know they'll only keep them a year then upgrade to the better ones. With the quick turnover, the conversion from GSM will be quick. New customers will consider the coverage and minute prices and whatever else they fancy and find that cdmaOne is very attractive in most situations. I suspect that OneTel, which is installing GSM as I write, is going to do their dough. They probably got conned by Ericy or somebody into believing that they could put in GSM, get the most popular technology now and enjoy a clear upgrade path to WWeb when it arrives. They are going to get a nasty surprise when they hear about the GSM overlay costs and obsolete handsets they'll face and ease of upgrade for their cdmaOne competitors who will be able to upgrade bit by bit, keeping everyone happy. Vodafone 'gets it'. I think most GSM operators are a bit befuddled and bamboozled by King Ericy and Queen Nokia claims to having a very, very fine raiment of VW40 ready to display to the world. Maurice PS: Australia and Russia resemble Singapore, China and Hong Kong??!!