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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Davies who wrote (6467)	3/22/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: Rico Staris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

COULD THIS BE THE ANSWER?..... news.com @Home considers Road Runner pairing By Corey Grice and Ben Heskett Staff Writers, CNET News.com February 4, 1999, 11:30 a.m. PT REDWOOD CITY, California--A senior executive with high-speed cable Internet access provider @Home said the door may be open for a possible deal with Road Runner, another entrant in the market. Executives from @Home said in an interview with CNET News.com that it would make more sense for the duo to cooperate and tackle the booming market for high-speed Net access together, rather than remain independent companies. A pairing--either through a cooperative marketing effort or a traditional merger--might make even more sense given both firms' ties to communications giant AT&T. Senior @Home executives appear amenable to a deal. "I can't imagine it not happening," said Charles Moldow, vice president of sales and marketing for @Media, the company's content unit. Speculation has swirled around a possible deal since AT&T earlier this week agreed to form a joint venture with Time Warner, parent of Road Runner.

To: E. Davies who wrote (6467)	3/22/1999 8:37:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 29970

You're right. You're out of your league. So is everyone else including Jermoluk. This move was quite a surprise among all direct or indirect participants. What are the pro's & cons for Comcast picking one vs the other? Comcast has effectively already decided to go with RR. Is the AT&T connection a positive or negative? It always had its good points and bad. Now we are seeing the bad. How many @home subscribers does Comcast have? About 50,000, but that isn't the point. ATHM is priced on great expectations for the future. The shares can't take any reduction in expectations. The number of current subscribers is irrelevant. How many RR subscribers does UMG have? That is private information, but I'd guess 80k. Again, that tells you nothing even if it is right. What are the relative sizes of the financial commitments? Which ones? None are relevant just as in the above. How strong are the exclusivity contracts in the face of a merger? Comcast has an option to buy out, however, as I mentioned earlier it wouldn't be cheap. More importantly, they don't need to take that route. They can just nominally support both systems until the 2002 expiration, and then go their own way. They would be providing "consumer choice" and that plays well at the FCC. etc... Ah, there's the rub, ha ha. I strongly suggest studying my post #6461 closely and then try to figure out what you want to do. Before you do it get back to me. I want to inform anyone reading this that ATHM is going to gap open down say 20 points tomorrow. The reason is this: I recently made a valuation of ATHM and posted the results here. Since we are in a bear market, it is critical to start looking at valuations. That's what a bear market is all about, discovering what is fair. The public loves fairness, so now they are going to get it. I said ATHM could make $2.00 in two years if they put together 2M subscribers. They could also hold a 50 multiple. Read $100/shr. These are generous figures. The stock has been evaluated at a premium to this generosity. With todays news you can't expect my projection to hold and now there is a reason for adjustment. You would have to reduce my projection by 1/3 ceteris paribus, so now the stock is fair at 66.