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To: Earlie who wrote (26904)	3/22/1999 6:42:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Here's my scenario for what its worth... For a while now, I've thought the only thing that would cause a crash in US stocks was a crash in the bond mkt (and hence the dollar) caused by foreign selling as well as deleveraging of many clowns here... there just isn't enough money out there to support all this trash... and it started a month ago, IMO, when the bond broke to 5.75 in about a two week period. She looks to be rolling over again, and the next leg should be big and fast. Bond could see 7% by the end of April at worst and 6.25% at best, IMO. The selling could begin accelerating at anytime... tomorrow? as it looks to have reversed today in its bear counter rally. First the UTIL and FRE and FNM should begin their crash moves in advance of the broader mkt... as they accelerate, the indices should follow w/ greater speed and play catch-up. The bond will obviously dump w/ the UTIL and the dollar and thus WITH stocks (this is what I think will shock most) thereby screwing most clowns that are using the bond mkt to hedge their stock exposure... ho ho.. they're in for a shock... thus we get MORE selling, since most would rather hold the bonds, the stocks get dumped. As both bonds and stocks fall and the bulls cry out "why is this happening.. there is no inflation!!!! AHHHHH!!!!" look for Joey Battafatlia and his ilk to jump for the window. Mkts always end w/ analysts and gov officials saying "there is nothing wrong!! the economy is fine... there is no " ? " The mkt has just panicked for no reason and gone way overboard!" Obviously w/ bonds and stocks falling together (PC/chip bad news will add to the panic/fun) the majority of investors will get SHELLACKED although bond holders will do better. All in all I think we've got a lot of events coming together to make the Titanic disaster look like a toy boat in the kiddie pool. It is a fitting climax to the country liquidation that began back in 1997... it is time for the US to be liquidated... ho ho ho My guess is that a sharp move up in yen (traders commitments on yen are quite bullish) will serve as the catalyst, (but that's just a guess.. who knows?) causing repatriation, paying off of yen loans from the yen carry trade that are invested in stocks, and a breakout in gold (screwing the gold carry trade as well and causing some hedge funds to collapse). The high leverage in the bond mkt will obviously add to the fun, and a fall in the dollar will cause all the foreigners who have panicked into US bonds over the last 2 years to flee... and the bonfire of the currencies will have hit a new level of fun... of course, none of that will happen, but it sounds cool. -vbg-