To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (20060 ) 3/22/1999 10:36:00 PM From: Chris Respond to of 42787
why use TA??? posted by TLC on another thread. <snip> There are thousands and thousands of ways to interpret a price chart. It is so screwy that you could consider it all to be just voodoo and most people would not argue with you. Many very smart investors, many very astute people, think that TA is, in fact, useless. I am not one of them, simply because I make money every day using TA. Here is what I would do if it were up to me to write that tutorial (and by the way, the following is (c) by me and may not be reproduced without my permission): Technical Analysis (TA) is the use of price charts and other relevant data such as volume, to attempt to predict the future. It is considered by some people to be useless, by some to be an "art" with loose rules, and a few to be a science. It has its roots in the Far East, but the "modern" use of TA is based on a rather simple methodology which uses consecutive periods of price movement. For example, a "daily" chart would show price movements broken down into days, a "weekly" chart would show consecutive weeks, etc. A simple and effective use of charts to give clues as to entry and exit points involves the use of "trend" lines. A "trend" is just what the name implies; the movement of a price either up (uptrend) or down (downtrend). Uptrends are tradtionally drawn by connecting 2 or more bottom points as the overall trend moves up. Downtrends are drawn by connecting 2 or more top points as the overall trend moves down. The most important consideration the buyer should have when using trend lines is his expectation of the amount of time he wants to hold the investment after he buys it. If he anticipates holding the stock for a period of over one year, it might make more sense for him to observe the weekly trend as opposed to a chart that shows price changes every 60 minutes. Conversely, if the buyer is anticipating holding the investment for less than three months, he may wish to use the daily chart trend lines as well as the weekly chart. For example, a long term investor who wants to use TA and trendlines, and who does not use the weekly chart to help him form an opinion, may be missing some of the benefits that TA proponents claim. Similarly, an investor who wants to choose an entry point using TA, and who anticipates holding the stock for less than 3 months, might be less able to make a valuable judgement based solely upon the trend of a monthly chart. How trendlines change, how to interpret these changes, how they are violated, and how to interpret such violations, are beyond the scope of this tutorial. Many books exist on Technical Analysis. The interested reader is encouraged to learn as much as he wishes about it. Trendlines are a very small part of the world of Technical Analysis, but for the beginner, they are an excellent place to start. Although there are several ways to interpret trend lines, we will discuss only one: the traditional uptrend. Here is how you draw a traditional uptrend line, and here is what you will see if it is violated.