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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daveyk who wrote (8724)	3/22/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dave, Mutual fund cash levels were around 5% last time I read. I'll post the exact # next time I get my hands on it. Just about an hour ago someone on CNBC said mutual funds available cash were at lowest level in many years.Did anyone else hear this also? Nick

To: Daveyk who wrote (8724)	3/23/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dave kilty and ALL: MDA UPDATE To view the charts being analyzed below go to Monty's MDA Chart Site at: cp-tel.net Note: Each chart has a built in five trading day extension. This allows viewing of the trend lines projected forward five days. RUT (Russell 2000) A medium-term fork was added to the chart today. Over the last couple of weeks the upper trend line of the bearish rectangle has been challenged but held. That trend line reinforced by the 200-day SMA has repelled the RUT for now. With today's price action the RUT has moved below the centerline of its long term trading channel. A move below the centerline usually portends trading in the lower half of the envelope for at least several days. The RUT also closed within the newly displayed medium-term fork and found support slightly above the long-term support/resistance line. Note if that trend line is penetrated to the down side next support would be at the lower trend line of its bearish rectangle. The oscillators are in sells for all signals, short-term, sht/med-term and med/lng-term. The Fast Stochastic is nearing overbought. COMPX (NASDAQ Composite) A medium-term fork was added to the chart today. Well the bear flag comes back into play with Friday's price action closing back into the formation. Today's price action was completely within the formation. In addition, the COMPX moved below the lower tine of rising short-term fork. Finding support slightly above the centerline of its long-term trading envelope. The centerline remains support with the 50-day SMA being next support. The oscillators are in a short-term sell, sht/med-term buy and a continued med/lng-term sell. The Fast Stochastic begins a move down and out of the oversold area several days in that range. UTIL (Dow Jones 15 Utilities) A medium-term fork was added to the chart today. The UTIL continued down for a second day finding support at the lower tine of its short-term rising fork. Next support would be in the area of both the centerline of its long-term trading envelope and its 50-day SMA with the 200-day SMA not far below. The oscillators are in a short-term sell, a continued sht/med-term buy and a continued med/lng-term sell. The Fast Stochastic is peeking out of the overbought area after hovering up there for days. TRAN (Dow Jones 20 Transports) A medium-term fork was added to the chart today. After thrusting above the long-term resistance line last Thursday, it did an about face on Friday crashing back through. Today it not only fell through the centerline of its long-term trading envelope, but it also pushed beneath the support/resistance line. Note a close below the centerline usually portends at the least price action for several days in the lower half of the envelope. Next support would be at the 50-day SMA and the lower band of the envelope. The oscillators are in a short-term sell, continue in a sht/med-term buy with the med/lng-term signal basically flat. The Fast Stochastic is nearing the oversold area. DJI (Dow Jones 30 Industrials Actual Data) Well Friday the DJI penetrated the rising resistance line intraday, but repelled from that line closing below. Today the DJI continued that fall trading in the upper channel of the short-term fork finding support slightly above the center tine. Support will be at that center tine with the next support coming at the centerline of the envelope and the rising support/resistance line. The oscillators are in a short-term sell, a sht/med-term buy and the med/lng-term continues in a sell. The Fast Stochastic after remaining in the overbought range for several days, looks posed to come out of the loft. This would portend lower prices. DJI Segmented Day Indicators (Not yet ready for prime time indicators.) The oscillator remains in a sell since the closing period of 3/15. Price action has once again moved into the lower half of the trading envelope, which portends lower prices. The Stochastic after spending an extended stay in the overbought range continued to move away today getting nearer the oversold range. DecisionPoint Chart I did not post a new chart tonight at the MDA Chart site, but you can look at the chart posted Friday there to review the trend lines and the annotations. Then look at the latest chart posted at DecisionPoint to see that my expectations are continuing. decisionpoint.com New High/New Lows New lows are beginning to expand showing growing weakness in the internals. decisionpoint.com Interest Rates Interest Rates are beginning to churn back up as expected and will dampen chances of a renewed rally, for now. As stated in a post a few weeks ago, I believe rates made a multi year low back on Oct 5, 98. decisionpoint.com Conclusion I suspect the Market as measured by the DJI will oscillate down for a few more days before mounting any rebound. I do not expect 10K to come back into play before a stronger pullback starts any time from tomorrow to the middle of April. I don't expect this stronger pullback to test the lows of Oct 98, but it is possible. I will stand aside with my investment portfoliios until the Market as measured by the DJI gives indications that it has found a bottom or starts a new bull run. I will just day trade for now...<g> (All Disclaimers Apply) BWDIK as always… Regards, LG PS: David welcome back to MDA, haven't seen you post for a few days. I see there is 29 post after yours, well thank goodness I have BrowseMaster...<gg>