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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheHahnz who wrote (8748)	3/23/1999 7:49:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ===================================== As a bellweather for the HiTECHs, MSFT is hinting the possibility of forming a DOUBLE TOP. My short-term technicals are severely overbought right now, which implies that it should not exceed the previous peak at 175 range which would lead to a DOUBLE TOP. Just a candlestick tidbit - the NAZ had a BLACK MARUBOZU, which implies continuation to the downside. A MARUBOZU is a long day which has no shadows. Its not a perfect MARUBOZU since it is not really that long and there is a very tiny shadow, which I am discounting. From my calculations, if the DOW does continue to sell off the maximum downside for this specific short-term downswing would be in the 9500-9700 range. A break of 9850 to the downside would imply further downside and confirm the TECHNICAL DELAYED RISE. Seeya seeya

To: TheHahnz who wrote (8748)	3/23/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re comment on A/D line This is the greatest thread, and I'll tell you why. Everyone has an opinion, and by providing a forum where ideas can be expressed allows for an analysis with more validity. The A/D line may have been in decline for 15 years, but that decline occurs with some slope (of measurable value). What Don has been pointing out is most probably a divergence in the rate of declination. An analogy would be to say, "officer why are you writing me a speeding ticket? I know you clocked me at 100mph but my average speed was 60mph. The A/D line is experiencing a more rapid rate of declination, relative to the historic rate which has been occurring for 15 years. The source of this disparity is most probably the global winds of economic change. It is my experience that humans are very perceptive to the rate of change of anything. Thus, it is easier to recognize when a car is accelerating or decelarating, but it much more difficult to say we are travelling at a constant rate of 50mph or 60mph. When velocity changes this is referred to as accelaration or deceleration. The A/D line declination had been travelling along at some speed and has now accelarated the speed at which it is declining. We should always pay attention to change, it is saying something. Thanks for eveyones insight!