To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (111018 ) 3/23/1999 11:00:00 AM From: GRANOLA Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 176387
HI FRANK, my first word of advice is to ignore "KeepItSimple," as he shorted DELL yesterday and suddenly feels the compulsion to scare everyone he can into selling...afterall, he has to try to steal shares away from others since we know it is VERY UNLIKELY that 30 will ever be seen for dell. secondly, regarding your question about whether this is a buying opp or a futile effort to bail the "titanic,"...take a look at the market, the news, the hype over the past few months...the glass is half empty now when it comes to the pc business...BTW JOHN BURNHAM (BURNHAM ASSET MGT) WAS JUST INTERVIEWED ON CNBC AND HE SAID DELL IS A BUY HERE...AND "NOT TO WORRY" ABOUT DELL...the media has blown the negative PC industry hype WAY out of proportion. That I am sure of. Where DELL's share price goes in the short term while this hype lingers is anyone's guess, but i have learned to buy dell whenever this type of situation occurs because, as you pointed out, there is most likely to be good news soon that will reverse this trend AND FAST! For example, the early april analyst meeting. The other thing i want to mention is that there is a strong psychological resistance at dow 10K, and the hype surrounding this has also played into the mkt trending down...that too will pass and IMO the dow will shoot past 10K when everyone LEAST expects it to. so if you have $$$ in dell, i would recommend keeping it parked there and buying more if you are not on margin (i don't like to use margin). i wouldn't sell dell here...that would be robbery. one positive clue from dell or ibm about the future details of their 7 year deal and the stock will shoot up 5 points in a blink. regarding microsoft and aol...i would be cautious about aol because it is the same kind of hype that has dell down that is driving aol higher. it is due for a correction IMO, then buy. microsoft is a stock that i never sell. but i wouldn't buy it at these prices either. JMOs on these since you asked. you know as well as i do that dell is a volatile stock even in the best mkts, and here we are seeing it in an extremely negative mkt for "hi val" stocks(whatever that means when you hear the same analyst downing dell for being hi valuation and saying to buy yahoo!). note we haven't heard much of anything about interest rates in the past week...the hype has died down and the rates are fairly stable. we will get back to looking at dell fundamentals soon IMO, and remember that while there has been selling here, i keep seeing HUGE INSTITUTIONAL PURCHASES, like this morning at the open someone bought 100K shares. sorry for rambling. good to hear from you. cheers, GRANOLA