To: Rob S. who wrote (46950 ) 3/23/1999 2:38:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
5 Though we go into much greater detail in the rest of the note, we note three key reasons for the upgrade: (1) the network business is as strong as ever and with the recent decision to open up the DoubleClick Network on a non-exclusive basis, we expect inventory to increase smartly in 1999, with a nice pickup in revenue in a few quarters as well; (2) the DART business has really turned a corner, and we believe it could well become the de-facto standard for ad serving. With DoubleClick's new product suite Closed Loop (DART for Advertisers, Boomerang, DataBank) out of Beta or very close to release, we believe that DART revenue could show nice increases throughout 1999; and (3) that targeting will become increasingly important to Internet advertisers in 1999. Internet advertisers are demanding better results from their online media buys than many are currently getting, and though content-specific targeting (like sponsorships) has its merits, getting the right message to the right person at the right time (which is the real reason the Internet has been hyped as the perfect advertising medium) can only really be done via behavioral targeting, which is what DoubleClick is all about. Importantly, the power of positive feedback loops and increasing returns power each of their products, with success in the Network side begetting success in the DART business, which powers the new Closed Loop products, which helps DoubleClick target advertising for their clients to an even finer degree. And based on our conversations with the advertising community (a list of companies we've contacted appears at the bottom of this first call note), we think DoubleClick has reached that critical mass point in their development. So just like no MIS manager ever got fired for buying IBM in the 1980's or Microsoft in the 1990's, in the advertising world, DoubleClick has become the “safe” buy, with a product recognition and service reputation that is second to none. The DoubleClick Network Goes “Non-exclusive” This quarter, DCLK has expanded their network, for the first time allowing sites in on a non-exclusive basis (previously the growth of the network was somewhat limited by the fact that DCLK required exclusive ad sales representation). This is a significant shift from both a tactical and strategic point of view, since it immediately increases the reach of the DoubleClick network (now at #5 with a 48% reach of Internet users against AOL at 54%, Microsoft at 52%, Yahoo at 51%, and Lycos at 49%) and eventually could add enough inventory to further enhance DoubleClick's targeting efforts. After all, the larger the reach, the greater number of “slices” DoubleClick could offer, say P&G. Greater Reach Equals More Inventory Equals More Revenue, But Wait…There's More Increased reach makes the DoubleClick Network a better buy for advertisers and a larger network gives DCLK greater access to more revenue, the two most important (and immediately positive impacts of expanding the Network to non-exclusives). Remember, however, that revenue is enhanced also from the fact that the Network is creating more targeted inventory for which DCLK can charge a higher CPM. This even in a decreasing pricing environment (average industry-wide CMP's in Q498 dropped to $35.13, down 8% y/y and 3% q/q according to a study by AdKnowledge). Prior to the expanded network, 29 out of the 30 sites that wanted to be part of the DoubleClick Network were not allowed in; since the non-exclusive announcement, 15 out of the 30 Web publishers that want to give ad inventory to DoubleClick are accepted. Now DoubleClick Can Get Paid To Monetize Leading Sites' Unsold Inventory From a publisher perspective, the new non-exclusive arrangement makes lots of sense; they