Another interesting article from the LATimes:
THE TIMES POLL
Crossover Support Lifts Bush, Dole as Favorites for 2000
Election: The two potential presidential candidates easily outpaced Al Gore. Survey
offered mixed news for Republicans wary of backlash over impeachment efforts.
By MARK Z. BARABAK, Times Political Writer
Crossover Support Lifts Bush, Dole as Favorites for 2000
Poll Analysis
Excerpts from the Polling Data
Graphic: 2000 Presidential Election
Two potential presidential candidates who are not yet candidates, George W. Bush and
Elizabeth Hanford Dole, lead a pack of hopefuls bidding for the Republican nomination in
2000, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll.
Even as they ponder whether to run, both lead Vice President Al Gore--the overwhelming
Democratic favorite--in potential trial heats that found broad crossover support for Bush
and Dole among Democrats and independents.
With the impeachment trial of President Clinton in full swing in the Senate, the survey also
offered mixed news for Republicans who might fear a backlash from efforts to oust the
popular incumbent.
A majority of Americans said a vote either for or against impeachment would have no
impact on their choices for the Senate in 2000; it was about the same for House races. At
the same time, most Americans said Clinton's impeachment should not be an issue in the
presidential campaign.
However, by nearly 2 to 1, those who do wish to send a message to Congress said they
were less likely to reelect a House member who voted to impeach Clinton, which could be
significant, as Republicans cling to a mere six-seat majority in the House.
With the first votes of the 2000 primary season more than a year away, and the November
election 21 months away, the national survey of presidential preferences tended to reward
name recognition over any other candidate quality.
Texas Gov. Bush, the son of the former president, led the Republican pack with 39%
support. Dole, the retired head of the Red Cross and wife of 1996 GOP nominee Bob
Dole, had 25% support.
The only other candidate with double-digit backing, at 17%, was former Vice President
Dan Quayle, who formally entered the race last month.
On the Democratic side, Gore had 52% support to 17% for Jesse Jackson, a two-time
presidential candidate; 11% for House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri;
7% for former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley; and 4% for Massachusetts Sen. John F.
Kerry. Of the Democrats, only Gore and Bradley are officially entered.
In 2000 trial heats among registered voters, Bush led Gore 57% to 39%, and Dole beat
the vice president 50% to 42%.
Not surprisingly, Gore was by far the best known of the trio, all of whom enjoyed overall
positive ratings.
By 49% to 39%, a plurality of voters has a good impression of the vice president, who has
doggedly defended Clinton in the Monica S. Lewinsky matter. Only 12% had no opinion
of Gore, who has lately stepped up his public profile on policy issues in preparation for a
full-blown run for president.
At the same time, however, Gore has emerged as a deeply polarizing
figure--notwithstanding his rather drab and stodgy public image.
Although 80% of Democratic voters and 44% of independents view Gore favorably, 73%
of Republicans have an unfavorable impression of the vice president. He drew only 10% of
Republican support in a trial heat against Bush, and a mere 6% GOP backing against Dole.
In contrast, Bush and Dole enjoyed strongly favorable impressions, with plenty of
bipartisan goodwill--at least among those who know them. It may help as well that their
views concerning any number of potentially controversial issues are little known to
national audiences, a phenomenon that may be called the "Colin Powell effect." The
retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who has assiduously steered clear of partisan
controversy while pushing apolitical issues such as volunteerism, has consistently
demonstrated broad appeal in polls.
Sixty percent of voters had a favorable impression of Bush, with only 8% unfavorable;
about a third had no opinion of the Texas governor. Fifty-two percent had a favorable
impression of Dole and 13% unfavorable, with 35% either unaware of the former Red
Cross chief or expressing no opinion.
Although a potentially rough campaign lies ahead, Bush and Dole showed potential
strength as general-election candidates.
In contrast to Gore's meager crossover support, Bush managed to draw 68% backing
from among independent voters and 23% from Democrats in a trial matchup with the vice
president, replicating his success in Texas at building a broad coalition across party lines.
Even 36% of self-described liberals backed Bush against Gore.
For her part, Dole managed to draw 53% of independents and 20% of Democrats in a
matchup with Gore, along with 33% of liberals. There was no distinct gender advantage,
however, for the only woman candidate known as a potential 2000 candidate. In fact,
Bush actually ran stronger among women (57% to 37% for Gore) than did Dole (47% to
43% for the vice president).
As for the impeachment issue, although the political world seems obsessed with Clinton's
fate, most Americans seem to give it far less weight.
Only 5% of voters said it should be the most important issue in the 2000 presidential race.
Twenty-nine percent said it should be an issue, but not the most important one, and 64%
said it should not be an issue at all.
Opinions differed somewhat among partisans, however, similar to the larger division over
Clinton and the question of his fitness to remain in office. Seventy-eight percent of
Democratic voters said impeachment should have no place in the 2000 campaign, along
with 61% of independents. But half of Republicans said impeachment should be an issue,
with 12% calling it the most important issue.
As for congressional contests, 52% of voters said a vote to convict Clinton and remove
him from office would have no effect on who they back for the U.S. Senate next year.
Twenty-six percent said they would be less likely to support a senator who votes to
convict the president and 17% said they would be more likely to support such a candidate.
Fifty-four percent said a vote against Clinton's removal would have no effect on their
decision. Twenty-two percent said they would be more likely to support a senator who
votes against removal from office, and 20% were less likely to do so.
In House races, 49% of the electorate said a vote to impeach Clinton would have no effect
on how they vote next year. But 31% said they would be less likely to reelect a House
member who voted to impeach, and 16% said they would be more likely to vote for such a
person.
Fifty-five percent said a vote against impeachment would have no bearing on their vote in
next year's House races. Twenty percent were more likely to reelect a member who voted
against impeachment and 19% were less likely to do so.
The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, interviewed 960 adults nationwide,
including 817 registered voters, Wednesday through Friday. Among registered voters, 203
were self-described Republicans and 298 were self-described Democrats. For registered
voters the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; for Democrats
and Republicans it is 6 points.
Copyright Los Angeles Times
I will merely point out that the article says that Gore had the best name recognition, and
was nevertheless losing. |
