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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (17654)	3/23/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom	Respond to of 93625

Here's some great news for all of you (or some bad news) I've reprinted my stats page here. Notice how Rambus has never ever before been down 6 days in a row. So, since today was the 5th straight down day, that means that tomorrow it simply has to be up. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. And, of course, if it's down tomorrow, that means it will be down on Thursday too. What a nightmare, huh? The trend is your friend (more stats for a slow news day) Since the beginning of 1998, there have been 277 trading days. During that period, here's a breakdown of Rambus streaks: Up 2 consecutive days: 17 times 3 days: 10 4 days: 2 5 days: 5 6 days: 1 Down 2 consecutive days: 20 times 3: 6 4: 4 5: 2 7: 1 That accounts for 194 days, 103 of them up. The other 83 days were 1 day moves. Conclusion: 74 out of 277 days, Rambus goes either up or down 2 consecutive days. 83 out of 277 days, it goes up or down one day, and the reverse the next. That is 57% of the time that Rambus will make either one or two day moves, not more. Only 120 days out of that time have the streaks in one direction or the other exceeded 2 days. Thus, the odds are with you to buy after two down days or sell after two up days. Odds? Yeah, odds. In the 41 days this year, 22 have been down days. Statistically insignificant. So, if Rambus is down tomorrow, then a betting person might buy at the end of the day to flip the next day. Of course, that assumes the employment numbers won't tank the market. Who the hell really knows? <ggg>