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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (8859)	3/23/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

>>.All the bears in this thread could someone guess as to what the catalyst will be that will make this market correct significantly.<< extreme overvaluation panic buying techs and internets record level of public participation in markets (weak hands) rising interest rates declining earnings worldwide recession y2k 5 digit psychological barrier record bullish sentiment Dent "Long Boom Ahead" on the best seller list. (hint the long boom is behind with the two extended business cycle expansions created by the boomers, which are aging and getting creaky now -g- I am) i could make the list much much longer. when the market gets this overbought, it only takes a slight blow from the northwind to get humpty dumpty of the wall. bb

To: fedhead who wrote (8859)	3/23/1999 8:16:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Anindo, >>>> One also needs to compare the new lows with the number of new lows during the last dip in February. If the number of new lows during this dip has decreased that is a positive divergence. All the bears in this thread could someone guess as to what the catalyst will be that will make this market correct significantly.<<<< The NEW LOWs last FEB were lower than now, however I think the better comparison is the peak around JULY, and right now the NEW LOWs are approximately that same as in JULY. You are correct about a positive divergence under those circumstances. The NEW LOWs got as low as 1200 during last years pullback, and I do not believe we will get that low this time. You are correct that many have turned bearish, just the same way when the market was approaching 10000 many were bullish. I am not as bearish as I was last summer before the that pullback, but there could be a 5%-10% correction in APRIL. I have stated my reasons for the pullback in previous posts. seeya