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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7741)	3/23/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, What's the probability that with all the cruise missiles and smart bombs that will be "sent" to Kosovo, that we'll see a new surge on the fabs capacity driving the sector to new heights? ;-) Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7741)	3/23/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, I think it may be too finite of a measure and there may be easier ways, though I do not have the data. May be Katherine and certainly, Carl Johnson, should have such analysis. I believe this is an industry with only so many players. Industry experts can count, company by company, what they have, what they need and run models using what if scenario. Further more, the model can easily predict the capacity, if xx number of fabs and foundries are built. For the specialized semi equipment companies, there may be arguments about who may be more successful than others. For the leaders like AMAT, it is most likely that they will get a predictable percentage of the pie. Needless to say, the revenue is then predictable and the earnings is just a factor of how well they operate. Unfortunately for me, I only data I have is revenue and earnings from previous peaks. So far, it does not convince me that the industry will command substantially higher revenue and earnings from previous peaks while stock prices for the group is already far beyond. Well, thats my 2 cents. May be Katherine or Carl would tell me such a model exists and is available for all. Ramsey

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7741)	3/24/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 10921

>> The target is to keep the 300 equipment tab at $1.3 billions for the same 5000 WSPW.<< That's the target. Almost no one thinks it's achievable. Reason being that 300mm equipment, in addition to being bigger, will incorporate all kinds of new automation and will probably be at a smaller device generation. It might cost the same as 200mm equipment with all of that, but won't cost the same as current 200mm equipment. Katherine