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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (47093)	3/23/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

TALKING POINT--Dow 10K bash on hold, await techs By Jennifer Shaw NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - The invitations have already gone out for Wall Street's Dow 10,000 party but any festivities are on hold until the tech stocks send their RSVP. "The market is not going to make another bull move on oil stocks, chemicals, or consumer products," said Barry Hyman, market strategist at Ehrenkrantz, King & Nussbaum. "It's got to be led by the technology sector. That's where the great growth engine in the economy is," he added. Relative to other sectors, technology continues to fare well -- for now. But the possibility of earning disappointments in the coming quarter has put a damper on the recent spurt of investor exuberance. "Technology has definitely seen the least of the revisions downward for Q1," said Tony Crooks, analyst at First Call. Crooks said the sector is expected to grow at 34 percent as opposed to 35 percent in January and 39 percent in February, when a strong fourth quarter pulled estimates up. But tech stocks have suffered in recent weeks with investors rethinking the profit outlook for top-tier companies such as Dell Computer Corp. <DELL.O> and International Business Machines Corp. <IBM.N>. "This is something that's been building for weeks, if not months, that the bloom has been off the PCs," said Trude Latimer, independent stock broker in Charlottesville, Va. "Its very tough here." The move to scale back expectations appears to be gaining steam. Dell Computer Corp, which was trading as high as 44-3/8 on March 8, was at 35-3/4, down 2-1/8 in afternoon trade. Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette's Kevin McCarthy on Monday cut his revenue estimate for Dell's first quarter to $5.35 billion from $5.5 billion and his first quarter earnings estimate to $0.15 per share. BancRobertson Stephens analyst Dan Niles on Monday cut his first quarter earnings estimates on Big Blue based on concerns that computer hardware sales would come in below plan. Analysts say the next two weeks could be telling for other companies. "Like all sectors, they are usually trimmed down during the last 30 days of the quarter. These next two weeks are the preannouncments season (corporate guidance on near-term earnings)," Crooks said. Any change in the group's outlook would be critical because technology is a key driver of overall profit growth in U.S. stocks. Already it has become clear that the personal computer business is one segment of the tech sector not growing as fast as had been expected. The PC business is not technology's most profitable or fastest growing segment, but it is a key feeder for other businesses ranging from chips to disk drives to software. "When you have weakness in the PC market it's not just the PC market," said Ehrenkrant's Hyman. "The question is: Is this a one-quarter phenomenon or a secular slowdown in technology growth?" At midafternoon on Tuesday, the technology Nasdaq composite index was down 50.92 points, or 2.13 percent, at 2345.02. The index hit a lifetime high of 2533.44 on February 1. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 153 to 9737, a 1.55 percent decline. Other tech stock indicators were lower, as well, with the CBOE's computer software index <.CWX> down 15.71 points to 608.60. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's semiconductor stock index <.SOXX> was down 10.91 points at 358.92. IBM shares were trading this afternoon at 166-7/16, down 3/4. Chip-maker Intel Corp <INTC.O> was trading at 115, off 1/8 for the session and well off its year high 143-11/16. Until the earnings picture clears, analysts are shelving their Dow-10,000 expectations. "Earnings preannouncments have been notoriously detrimental for technology stocks," said Bryan Piskorowski, market analyst at Prudential Securities. "That's going to make (Dow 10,000) a hard road to hoe. The beatings will continue until the (technology) demand" resumes, he added.