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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1281)	3/24/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2313

John, RE <<are any of the stocks you listed a beaten-down bargain, or are they all beaten down more than their peers for a good reason?>> Ah...... getting to the important question!! I hate to hedge, but really I think a little of both. As far as the ones we came up with (ASYT, EGLS, SVGI, UTEK, SFAM) I think they are beaten down for the reason that the market doesn't think they have as good a competitive position as others,(and the market is probably right) BUT some of them are so beaten down, IF we really do have a slow steady 2 year recovery, I think they still represent value at these levels. Maybe they are not the best companies, but there comes a point when the price is cheap enough that a good percentage return can still be made. EGLS for example, has around $7 in cash and no debt if memory serves. The stock is only $12. That is the same price it was at the lows of the 1996 downturn. It has hit $35-40 in previous cycle peaks. Even over the last couple months it had hit around $18. Thats a 50% up move from here! SFAM really looks like a bargain, (will be SFAM/IPEC soon). I think people are really spooked about AMAT though. CMP is supposed to be one of the fastest growing sub-sectors of the semi-equips, and SFAM/IPEC is the best pure play. Even if AMAT has made significant inroads to market share, there will need to be a second big player. SFAM is down to about $12. Which is about their soon to be post merger book value (IPEC will dilute book). Hard to believe it was a $60 stock in 1997! I think the low on it was $9 last fall. I have to admit, I sold my UTEK a while back, and am not really a fan at this point. They really seem to be going nowhere. I do like ASYT here too, although I hate to try to catch the falling knife with semi-equips, you never know how low they can go. Logic (maybe bad thing in the market) says that things are much better now for the sector than they were last fall, so the stock prices shouldn't go back to lows. I'm not buying the big boys like AMAT, still insane valuations. I mean common it's already higher than the highest price of any cycle before, and we're still early in the cycle. I may not jump in deeper on the "looks real cheap" crowd either. Own some of them already and hate to fight the market on them. I'm looking for semi-equips that have come down an average amount, and that may not have caught up to the big boys ratios in the first place, and that the market respects more. kind of what I consider "middle tier companies" not the AMAT of NVLS or KLAC's, but not the SVGI or UTEK or EGLS either. Some examples would be..... KLIC, HELX, COHU, and I like MTSN for more of a speculation. It's late and I have rambled on too long. By the way, my name is Eric, not Carl. That's what the "E" of EACarl is for.