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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Dior who wrote (8952)	3/24/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

OT While I agree that we appear to have a bearish leaning at most times, this leaning is for good reason. We have experienced one of the longest bull markets in history and all things do end, new paradigm or not. The economy is not growing as fast as PE ratios are growing. We are at record PEs on the SPX while people are losing their high paying jobs from slowing companies before they are bought out by foreign firms and are being re-employed flipping burgers. The US is printing currency like there is no tomorrow and the only reason we didn't have a Black Monday last October, was because a financial organization with so many bad derivitives was about to single handedly cause a world wide market crash where AG had to do a perfectly timed, bond market closed, panic Friday surprise interest rate cut. Since that time most, and I mean Most, stocks have receded to make new yearly or multi year lows while a handful of stocks have carried the indexes higher. That said, if you followed the link to the charting site that accompanies this thread you will notice buy signals on our charts, (the little green dots on mine) and also if you read this thread for more than a day's worth of posting when the market just had a broad based 2% haircut, you would see that there are many buy recomendations on here to include one from Don Sew who is one of the first invited here. This thread is usually bullish during declines and bearish during the rallies since we want to have plans in place ahead of the turns in the market. Cheack back a few days before the drop started and you will see where we were shopping for the best prospects and note in October where we were looking for what was the best longs. Bull or bear, I think the record of this thread is better than any analyst on TV or print. We hit the lows and highs pretty darn good and note that we went bearish last week and sold into the last days of the rally. We aren't doing too bad. Many were caught long and are searching the threads for what they want to hear which is that your positions that are down have a chance, is that the crowd you are in search of? Maybe I assume too much, but seems most of us here are happy because we are either on the right side of this market right now or at least saw it coming. When the bottom comes, some will catch it just right here and the rest will come around due to the shared knowledge and sound reasoning involved in the discussion. It will also happen because we have EARNED each others respect no matter if that person is perma bull, perma bear or just a follow the trend kind of person. Some posters here can make money going long in down markets, some going short in climbing markets and some switch sides. Therefore, all posts are helpful. See you on the bullish side, Lee