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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (29180)	3/24/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 70976

I think Peter Lynch said it best, "Investing in cyclicals is like going over the Alps; you don't get as much out of it if you just fly over them; you need to climb their rise and falls". (or he said something to that effect <g>) My take is that we are in an up cycle, but its a lot slower than most people expect. So they will end up thinking that the cycle is over and kill the stocks, only to pick them up later. BWDIK ST

To: Gottfried who wrote (29180)	3/24/1999 1:53:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried:<<Has he looked at the chart? Stepping in and out is exactly the way to play this stock, i.e. go with the cycle.>> Hi Gottfried, hope todays market activity was not too traumatic for you {I just went back to bed and pulled the covers over my head}. I agree with you as your charts certainly demonstrate the relationship between the stock price and the business cycle. I also, however, agree with them that if you look back the last 10 years, AMAT has been a wonderful long term investment. My problem with stepping in and out is, of course, the timing of the thing. As you know, during this run up since last October, we have seen many of our friends here on this thread declare the cycle did not support AMAT's valuation and they bailed out prematurely. Others, not seeing the bottom didn't get on the train in the 20's or 30's and are still waiting for an entry point. I'm glad you are successful in timing AMAT. I don't think, however, I would want to try to time it and be 100% out of it at any time. I just think it is a great company with its best years still to come. Best regards, Jeff