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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (8967)3/24/1999 3:20:00 AM
From: Moominoid  Respond to of 99985
 
On SPX we stopped right on the 34 dsma which is roughly where we were on 23 July 98. The market then tried to rally for a few days and failed. The 34dma provided support a couple of times on the way up from 8 Oct. We're also right on the trendline from the 8Oct lows to the recent ones at the beginning of March. So if this fails here I would start getting worried. My own indicators haven't given a sell signal. Normally they give lots of false positives. They're more likely to take you out of the market unnecessarily than keep you in it when a crash is coming. ie they pick out Oct87, Oct97, Jul-Aug98 and lots of ones that never happened <g>. But maybe this time is different.

David



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (8967)3/24/1999 7:04:00 AM
From: Monty Lenard  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Lee, They are not what I would call leading indicators but more of a lie detector test for the market. In other words, when the market is making new highs or new lows and these are not confirming the moves.

You will notice that they keep making higher lows and have been bouncing off the trend line since October. If they break the trendline I would say that we are in for a serious selloff.

FWIW
Monty