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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5894)	3/24/1999 7:52:00 AM
From: TEMFASSBAL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

FYI...More Long term good news for HTCH IMO <<07:31 [EMC,IBM] EMC TO BUY IBM DISK DRIVES, OTHER TECHNOLOGY. 07:31 [EMC,IBM] IBM, EMC FORM 5-YEAR TECHNOLOGY ALLIANCE VALUED AT $3 BILLION. >> Tim

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5894)	3/24/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: La Traguhs	Respond to of 9256

Z, Good observation about CPQ. It's worth keeping an eye on that one. Your right about Q1 being a traditionally slow quarter for the PC/HDD industry but I think the disappointment I have was the early guidance given by the HDD industry that we would be flat to slightly up sequentially based on early analyst's forecasts for PC/HDD sales. Those forecast show unit increases of HDDs shipped of 15 to 18% Y/Y for 1999. To do that, we would have to be flat sequentially this quarter and next, allow for a little drop during the summer and bank on the traditional up swing in Q4. Right now, being flat this quarter for the HDD industry is a stretch, and those in the industry claim no or limited visibility for the next quarter. I interpret that to mean HDD unit shipment guidance will be down sequentially (from where we sit today). Now for the traditional Q4 up swing - I'm concerned that the Y2K issue will swing that one. While I'm far from being a "lets head for the hills" advocate I'm concerned that after the summer, the media will, in the September/October time frame, jump on this issue again with a vengeance, blow it way out of proportion, causing investment stagnation until we actual see what transpires in early January '00. And there goes the 15 to 18% unit growth theory. I've focused on unit growth, not margins or profitability. Margins, with 15 to 18% unit growth, are only estimated to be 3 to 4%. Miss the 15 to 18 and your talking losses for the year. But heh, give me reason for hope. I'd love to become an optimist this year for a change. Regards, LT