Pundit Central --coments by Tony Dwyer:
FROM THE BULLS:
"From time to time, and sometimes frequently, it makes sense for different sectors to take leadership in the stock market because they are taking leadership in the economy," says ABBY JOSEPH COHEN of GOLDMAN SACHS. In any case, she says "the precondition is in place for ongoing good performance by the stock market." ("USA Today", 3/23)
"Once we're through the earnings season and into it, I think when the big names start to come out with their earnings like Intel, we'll get back through 10,000 and stay there," says JOE BATTIPAGLIA of GRUNTAL & CO. "This will be the longest running expansion of the 20th century and will carry us well into the 21st." He sees the Dow getting to 11,000 by summer's end. (PBS "Nightly Business Report", 3/22)
FROM THE BEARS:
"Whether it be Dow 10,000, 10,500, or 9,500, it would seem this market is at least a little ahead of itself," says EDWARD KERSCHNER at PAINEWEBBER. "Currently, the market is around levels that would seem justified about 12 months from now." He adds that "in the best case, to see the market stall around these levels for a good few months" unless interest rates move significantly lower or 1999 earnings growth is substantially higher than current forecasts. (WSJ and NYT, 3/23)
FORECASTS AND PREDICTIONS:
"I think in four years, you're going to have two big competitors, both providing voice, video and data through their pipes to customers," says ALAN GOULD of GERARD KLAUER MATTISON. "One's going to be the RBOC, the regional Bell operating company. The other is going to be the major cable operator." (PBS "Nightly Business Report", 3/22)
STOCK MARKET:
"If we did come down to around the 9600 level, I think we would bounce from there," says independent broker GAIL PANKEY. "I don't believe the bull market is over, but we certainly have a correction in here." (CNBC "Street Signs", 3/23)
"I'm always concerned about price declines, but I think the volatility is exaggerated up here by the mechanical nature of the [Dow Jones Industrial] Average," says JOHN BOLLINGER, president of EQUITYTRADER.COM. "I think it gets people's attention in ways perhaps it shouldn't; the same on the upside, too, by the way. ... At this juncture in the market, it's much more important to be right on the individual industry groups than it is to be right on the market as a whole." (CNBC "Street Signs", 3/23)
"There is no clarity about where the U.S. involvement [in Kosovo] will be," says KEITH MULLINS of SALOMON SMITH BARNEY. "Markets hate uncertainty and as a result I think you're going to continue to see market volatility surrounding Kosovo until there is some batter clarify as to what exactly what the U.S. involvement will be." (CNBC "Market Wrap", 3/23)
"I haven't liked the large-cap growth stocks for awhile because the multiples are just too rich, but the average stock is trading at only about 16 times earnings, the average stock has not participated in this run-up we've had in the past year-and-a-half so we're finding a lot of value," says VINCE FARRELL of SPEARS, BENZAK, SALOMON & FARRELL. He continues: "So there's stuff to buy, but I just think you're going to see some extreme volatility, like you're had, and I think maybe it's going to be a little bit more on the downside for a little bit than it's been on the upside." (CNBC "Market Wrap", 3/23)
"If you're an index watcher and you're watching the Dow 30 stocks, you've got to be bullish," says TONY DWYER at LADENBURG THALMANN. "But if you're an investment adviser, you have to look at everything, not just 30 stocks. And if you're looking at the broader market, you've got to sell it right now." ("The Washington Post", 3/23)
"The market is starting to re-sensitize to valuation," says WILLIAM WILBY of the OPPENHEIMER FUNDS. "You're starting to see selected undervalued stocks perform better and some high-flying valuation winners get their heads handed to them." ("USA Today", 3/13)
"The groups that were driving us to 10,000 are faltering," says RICHARD CRIPPS of LEGG MASON. "The market is transitioning into different drivers that will have to take it higher. It won't be the enormous momentum that came from technology." ("USA Today", 3/23)
"It's not hard to make a strong case for small caps, but it is hard to get anyone to buy into it," says PETER COOLIDGE of BREAN MURRAY & CO. (WSJ, 3/23)
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