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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (7726)	3/24/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

<< And if this scenario has 100% to materialize, current AOL market cap should not exceed $60B, or half of its current value. >> Uh-oh. Now you have done it. Man, are you in trouble with this group. By challenging their idol, their icon, their sure-pathway-to-riches-undreamed-of, the stock that should split twice more this year and go up at least 6-fold before any serious correction, you have exposed yourself to their wrath and fury. I feel sorry for you now........... BP

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (7726)	3/24/1999 11:21:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

You are missing two major factors: (1) international growth, and (2) a shift from subsriber-based revenue to advertising, partnerships, and other sources. There is a third factor, but it is too nebulous to define right now, and that is the convergence of internet, data, and traditional entertainment services through high-definition TV. But if you want to value AOL strictly on U.S. subscriber revenue, you are right, you should not buy it, you should sell if you own any, and you should probably short it. But you'd better to that with every other ISP before you do it with AOL, because on that measure they will all be hurting a lot more. BWDIK P.S. Glad to see a bear on this thread. That is bullish for the stock :-)

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (7726)	3/24/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: tang	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

ATG, you are using the traditional fundamentals, they are very useful forestablished industries, such as GM, GE, IBM, DELL, CSCO, MSFT, AMGN rtc. When DELL or MSFT starts in theirearly cycle, investors bought into avirture picture, they saw the potential even though statistics in front of their eye was quite against the traditional fundamentals they believed in. Result: those who had the vision become millionaires, others were left in the dust. Internet business is not a today's business only, it is not something can be competed with, Internet is something changing everyone's life for the years to come, it is much bigger than Bio-Tech, it is much bigger than PC business, software business. Internet is a combination of all business we know of, it may not connect to all yet but it is forming that model everyday. To jump onto this Internet bandwagon, one must weigh their own risk mind because it is again to buy into a 'virture picture'! To play the savest among the risk kinds, who is better than AOL? A company's success relies heavily on their CEO and high management, it is particular important of their CEO's desire, if a CEO is short-sighted, the wrong vision will eventually kills the company, you and I see that everyday. Steve Case's vision is very clear, his will is so strong, he chooses people like choosing generals to go to battles, he bought business only fit his vision. This same character appeared on Bill Gates, ORCL's CEO, SUN's CEO, and I like that character a lot because the company's direction is the CEO's, Steve Case wants AOL to be #1 company, I like that too! Maybe 7-8 years from now, Internet is settling down like Bio-Tech, PC and softwares, then all statistics becomes important again because it is not a virture picture anymore but a solid picture with frame. But before that day arrives, AOL is the #1 bet into the Internet world no matter what you say! To those who wants to be AOL millionaires, you must stay long enough inside this virture picture!!!

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (7726)	3/24/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: J Krnjeu	Respond to of 41369

Mr. Arik T.G., Let's assume that each and every family in America that can afford it, will have 1.2 AOL subscribers. That's 100 million subscribers upper limit, or six times today's number. EBITDA should be what? $6-7B? let's say $10B. Remember, there is NO GROWTH from the upper limit. So a multiple of 8 on the EBITDA is more then reasonable. That gives you an upper limit of $80B market cap for AOL when it reaches its growth limit. Long term best case scenario. And if this scenario has 100% to materialize, current AOL market cap should not exceed $60B, or half of its current value. The prosecution rests. That is a poor prosecution, you don't even have half the story. The real money is in e-commerce and you didn't even mention it. Thank You JK