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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Parkinson who wrote (3590)	3/24/1999 11:43:00 AM
From: Goodboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Even if she is half wrong, that means the market may only be large enough for 2 players. The reality is that Globalstar may have the capacity at the right price point ($1 per minute or less) to satisfy the demand based on a sub $1,000 handset. Demand will grow as the price per handset or per minute comes down (which could be part of a subsidy model for usage commitment). The reality is that only two systems will be in operation this year. Of those two systems, Iridium does not have the pricing flexability or the marketing plan in place to drive demand to a level that can utilize their capacity. Of course, a restructured Iridium could compete somewhat more effecitively if some debt were removed and equity redistributed to the conflicted creditors, banks debt holders and bondholders. Even then, the Iridium system would not be massively profitable becasue they would be forced to compete at a much lower price point on both handsets and minutes to drive usage of their unused (and wasting capacity). As someone hear mentioned, every minute that goes unused is a minute ($1 to $3 in revenue) wasted forever (5 year average life for the array). Globalstar will be the hands down winner. I don't think that this is in doubt. I only question the timing of buying Globalstar. Is it likely that Globalstar will trade above twenty if Iridium drops under $15 (very likely over the next 6 months). Check out the bonds of both companies and understand what guilt by association means. I think GSTRF will get to the Zenit disaster level or lower, fair or not. Then it is a screaming buy. I think the Iridium campaign will benefit them in that every phone Iridium has not sold due to price or negative publicity, every big corporate or goverment deal Iridium hasn't signed will create a large pent up demand that Globalstar can take advantage of rapidly. I think it will be the exact opposite of the Iridium experience. My bet is the sub numbers will blow away the predictions in the first 6 months of service. Globalstar will waste no time during the summer and fall to differentiate their product, technology, pricing and distribution model from Iridium and both investors and consumers will embrace the company. The Wild card is this. Will Loral have to pony up all the cash for the system because the bond markets are closed (with yields above 20% and not likely to get better with Iridium problems). That funding issue could also weigh on the stock, but like Iridiums problems, will allow for the purchase of shares at bargain prices. IMHO.

To: Jim Parkinson who wrote (3590)	3/24/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Geoff Goodfellow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Dear Jim, I'm new to this board and am interested in hearing a little more about the "unserved market" that G* has always targeted. Could you please explain what exactly market this is and how is it unserved (especially by the existing offerings, Inmarsat Mini-M and/or Iridium)? Thanks in advance... Best Regards, Geoff Goodfellow

To: Jim Parkinson who wrote (3590)	3/25/1999 12:38:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 29987

ICO - cancel your system or lose a LOT of money The market is not the huge money-dripping swarm imagined less than a year ago. Potential subscribers [over $1 per minute] are fewer and farther apart than was hoped. Let's hope ICO doesn't add to the overcapacity thus causing huge losses to themselves and Iridium instead of them suffering no losses and Iridium maybe making a profit. Even if ICO launches, Globalstar will still make big profits, but the margins will be under more pressure than otherwise. On handset size, the powerful cdmaOne terrestrial base stations under test in Australia are able to provide coverage up to 200 km away. They must be TALL towers. Anyway, another 100 km and we are getting near Constellation3 altitude. Existing handsets work at 200km it seems, and that is through the bottom of the atmosphere. So heading into space, attenuation would be reduced. Handsets similar to existing cdmaOne terrestrial handsets should be able to provide satellite service. The first constellation is 1414 km high, so if we can get down to 400km or even 300km with Constellation3, the propagation power would be quite low so the aerial, power output and handset size could be much reduced. CDMA by Qualcomm is really going to perform some good tricks in coming years. The cost of minutes will be under 5c per minute. Maybe only 2c per minute. So Globalstar will be able to offer a LOT of minutes at really good prices. Globalstar will be a much cheaper way of filling the holes in the terrestrial Swiss Cheese than building out more terrestrial networks where demand is low. Jim, I never went along with the idea that Iridium and Globalstar would have different customers. Sure there would be a difference, but the overlap was always going to be huge. Iridium would get very few of the 'low end' customer, but Globalstar would get heaps of the 'high end' business and other international roaming customers. The overlap was always going to be GSTRF overlapping the IRID market rather than the other way round. Now it seems that even Iridium's nominated prospects are not that hot on the system. Mqurice @275