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To: Big Dog who wrote (40747)	3/24/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: Mike from La.	Respond to of 95453

Quoted from The NOESIS Special Report "Higher crude oil prices will spur increased non-OPEC production from existing, shut in fields and, thus will create an improved market for production services. However, exploration programs will probably not start up again until some time after the year 2001." ---- This makes no sense to me. Why would companies start spending money on the most costly, inefficient wells, and put off spending on their most promising, lowest production costs wells.? Most of the reports on the shut-ins said that they would be too expensive to ever re-open, and put a price of $17 for any of them to be profitable. Various estimates on deepwater, for example, have them going full steam at $15, with production costs per barrel around $5-6. Note also that a time crunch is starting to play in the federal leases, in which they have to be developed or the company loses it's lease. I don't follow the logic of the Noesis opinion at all. Mike

To: Big Dog who wrote (40747)	3/24/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

OPEC contest results. Here it is. I'm publishing those who predicted a cut. Unless there is a ground swell of interest, I've left off those who predicted no cuts. No use rubbing salt in the wounds. They are listed in order of the accuracy of the specific estimates. There's a bunching of estimates in the 1.5 range, really no way to decide the most accurate there, so they are roughly a group on equals. The two top places are to lurkers who normally don't have much to say, but when they do talk, they hit it right on the head. Short sweet and accurate. There were 14 who choose cuts, 10 who said no cuts. But, everyone who invests in the sector is winning in their investment accounts. To: Mike from La. (39176 ) From: Donaldm Sunday, Mar 7 1999 7:16PM ET Reply # of 39181 I think they are all hurting and this time will not cheat as much. Make my guess 2.15M/day cut. Donald --- ---- To: Mike from La. (39184 ) From: RBlatch Sunday, Mar 7 1999 8:55PM ET Reply # of 39194 I predict SA will cave on a portion of the Iraq quota it picked up during the Gulf War, to what extent I'm not sure; and I believe OPEC will announce 2mbd combined cut between OPEC and participating non=opec countries. Cordially, RBlatch . To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Robert H. Sunday, Mar 7 1999 1:35PM ET Reply # of 39160 RE: OPEC OPEC will hit the shorts with a new 1.5-2 mbpd cut. I expect to see a pullback around mid-April with a stabilization of the market throughout the summer and 16.00 oil by Sept. To: Robert H. (39159 ) From: Big Dog Sunday, Mar 7 1999 5:39PM ET Reply # of 39169 I vote with Robert H. big ---- ------------- To: K. Lingerfelt (39136 ) From: Mike from La. Saturday, Mar 6 1999 10:47PM ET Reply# of 39138 Here's my shot: OPEC announces cuts of 1.5 million, will be joined by Russia, Ecuador, Norway, Mexico, Columbia. "New era of cooperation to assure an orderly market." Mike --- To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Elmer Sunday, Mar 7 1999 1:11AM ET Reply # of 39160 FWIW, here is my prediction: Iran and Saudi Arabia (and the rest of OPEC of course) will agree to meet in the middle of their 300,000 barrel dispute on Iran's production baseline. This will enable OPEC to cut by 1.25 mmbpd with another .25 mmbpd of cuts coming from Non-OPEC producers for a total cut of 1.5 mmbpd. The cuts will last until the end of 1999. Also, the cuts already in place will be extended through the end of the year. $18 oil by year end!!! Always the Optimist, Elmer --- To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Snewts Sunday, Mar 7 1999 9:11AM ET Reply # of 39160 Re. OPEC meeting contest. I see a cut of about 1.2 to 1.8 million with buy-in from Ven., Mex., and even a token cut from Russia.----- To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: SargeK Sunday, Mar 7 1999 5:16PM ET Reply # of 39164 I guestimate reductions of 1.4mbpd total (OPEC & Non-OPEC) K - To: Mike from La. (39163 ) From: ron peterson Sunday, Mar 7 1999 9:49PM ET Reply # of 39196 OPEC Contest--1.25mmbpd additional per day--OPEC and Non OPEC combined. Ron - -----To James Cherney (39173 ) From: Captain James T. Kirk Sunday, Mar 7 1999 7:43PM ET Reply # of 39182 Put me down for a total cut of all oil exports for a 2 week period to commence on 04/04/99, followed by an additional 1 mil cut. : Mike from La. (39176 ) From: Gary Burton Sunday, Mar 7 1999 7:34PM ET Reply # of 39181 Mike--Will you accept..."IF there is a meeting, OPEC itself will agree to cut an additional 1.0 (on top of the 98 cut).Non-OPEC would also make added cuts...But, the Meeting may be cancelled in advance because the various members will know before the meeting what the liklihood of agreeing to added cuts at the mtg would be." To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: K. Lingerfelt Saturday, Mar 6 1999 10:29PM ET Reply # of 39136 OPEC will agree to modest cuts. Oil demand will improve CQ3-4 and members start cheating again saying situation changed. Venezuala will drag feet complying. That's my prediction ----------- To: Mike from La. (39184 ) From: Harlan Moore Sunday, Mar 7 1999 8:23PM ET Reply # of 39194 Those OPEC guys crack me up. I vote 0-500,000 barrel cut. no more than 500,000. However, if crude is still trading up in the morning, I think I will vote with my pocket book and buy some more FLC. It's bloody cold in Seattle, and I'm burning oil like a mother. Teardown