OXYGENATE INDUSTRY MAY BE DISPLACED BY
FUEL CELL REVOLUTION - DaimlerChrysler,
Methanol/Hydrogen Fuel Suppliers Talk Deal to
Create Fueling Infrastructure-
Methanol and fuel cells...
Can anyone comment on this article?
Canadian company: Methanex
March 23, 1999
OXY-FUEL NEWS via NewsEdge Corporation --
Washington, D.C. -- DaimlerChrysler's unveiling of
an amazingly compact, fuel-efficient, prototype 2004
model year hydrogen fuel cell car signals a
potentially fate-changing future for ethanol, methanol
and MTBE producers alike.
In addition to possibly boosting demand for methanol
to dizzying heights, the introduction of a
commercially-viable, environmentally- friendly,
low-emission fuel cell vehicle may eliminate the
traditional need for oxygenates in gasoline.
The first impacts are about to hit: Daimler
announced it will shortly unveil plans for a deal with
methanol and/or hydrogen fuel suppliers to set up a
network of refueling stations in Europe, the U.S. and
Japan. In the U.S., that network initially will focus on
California, Massachusetts and New York, with the
latter two states aiming to copy California's
zero-emission vehicle mandate for a portion of
new-car sales in the next decade.
Daimler estimates that converting 30% of fuel
stations in those three U.S. states for methanol
supply would cost about $400 million. Converting the
same number of stations for hydrogen supply would
cost $1.4 billion. A special additive to make
methanol fires visible and a flavor additive to warn of
toxic methanol's presence in water will be required,
Daimler's chief fuel cell project director Ferdinand
Panik said.
The latest Daimler prototype can go 100 kilometers
on only 3.6 liters of methanol, he said. Running on
hydrogen, it needs only 3.2 liters of fuel per 100
kilometers, getting close to European Union goals of
a "three-liter car," equivalent to the U.S. Partnership
for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) 80
miles/gallon car. This same Daimler car using a
conventional diesel engine would require 6 liters of
fuel per 100 km, Panik said.
Bad News for Traditional Gasoline, Oxygenates;
Boost for Methanol
Fuel cells initially may only capture vehicle sales to
fleet operators facing environmental or alternate-fuel
mandates in cities with major air pollution problems,
officials said.
But if fuel cells fulfill their promise to replace the
internal combustion engine, then "oxygenated fuels"
seem on the road to irrelevancy, along with
conventional gasoline and diesel. As a result, the
only future for oil refiners and oxygenate producers
may be in petrochemicals. On the other hand,
gas-to-liquids fuels such as methanol or
Fischer-Tropsch naphtha could reap a bonanza from
the fuel cell revolution.
The fuel cell revolution could have a devastating
impact on refiners. " They know they have to do
something," Panik said. "They're losing money on
gasoline today." The existing gasoline/diesel
infrastructure may seem to give the oils the upper
hand over alternate fuels, but "the Stone Age didn't
end from a lack of stones, as a Shell official said
recently," he said.
However, automakers still have a long way to go to
bring down the cost of a fuel cell car to that of an
internal-combustion (IC) engine vehicle, Daimler
officials admitted. Daimler alone will spend $1.5
billion on its 2004 fuel cell car, with no guarantee
that it will meet its estimated goal of selling 40,000
cars in the first year of introduction, officials said.
Critical to car sales is first setting up the fuels
infrastructure, they said. In addition, continued
depressed oil prices also will raise the bar for the
competitiveness of fuel cell vehicles, officials said.
So, the race among automakers is to bring the total
life-cycle cost of the fuel cell car to approximate that
of a conventional IC car by 2004, Daimler's CEO
Juergen Schrempp told a large crowd of reporters
from around the world here last week. Tax credits for
such "green" cars might speed-up purchases of the
car among a wider public, but fuel cell technology
seems the likeliest winner among alt-fuel alternatives
in any case, Schrempp said.
Daimler showed off five of its fuel-cell vehicles
developed in recent years, each one showing huge
improvements in size, weight, fuel efficiency and
power density compared to its predecessors.
U.S. EPA Administrator Carol Browner praised
Daimler for being first out of the gate with a
prototype zero-emissions vehicle that offers the
same range and passenger space as a gasoline or
diesel car. "Congratulations," Browner told
Schrempp. "It's a real step forward -- it's exciting
news for the environment, public health and the
economy."
Not to be outshined by Daimler, Ford also confirmed
2004 plans for a commercial fuel cell car, and others
including General Motors and Toyota say they're
aiming to follow. All of these vehicles initially are
likely to run either on methanol or hydrogen, the
automakers say.
The rapid pace of fuel-cell technology improvements
is beginning to approach that of the computer
industry, officials said. An encouraging sign: It's
being driven by free-market competition, not by
government dictates, Schrempp boasted. "I'm
against government regulation," he said, adding that
automakers now have enough profit incentive to
compete among themselves for technological
leadership in cars.
The latest Daimler fuel cell -- Necar 4 -- "is a major
breakthrough in fuel cell technology because we've
developed a very powerful fuel cell system small
enough to be packaged in a compact car," said
Panik. "Five years ago, you needed a large van to
contain all the fuel cell hardware. The significance of
this technological advancement is comparable to the
impact the microchip had on computer technology
when it replaced the transistor."
Before Chrysler merged with Daimler last year,
Chrysler's Chris Borroni-Bird headed the company's
"gasoline" fuel cell project. Now, " gasoline" is
taking second or third place to methanol and
hydrogen development, he confirmed.
Asked by Oxy-Fuel News if DaimlerChrysler still
hopes to develop a " gasoline" fuel cell, Borroni-Bird
said, "maybe by 2010 or 2015, or maybe a
Fischer-Tropsch naphtha will come first." Daimler
and fuel cell stack maker Ballard are working with
Shell on liquid hydrocarbon fuels, with zero sulfur
fuel a key requirement, he added.
Neither methanol nor hydrogen have the distribution
structure in place that can match that of gasoline or
diesel. So, the oil industry could still find a key role
in developing a new, fuel-cell friendly fuel, officials
said. "We want to open a dialogue with our partners
in the oil industry," Schrempp emphasized.
Naphtha/Gasoline Fuel Cell Fuel By 2010?
"We are fuel neutral," added Panik. "For the near
term, methanol is the clear choice to introduce fuel
cell vehicles for consumer use in 2004. Technical
challenges prevent gasoline fuel cell vehicles from
being available until at least 2010."
The methanol and hydrogen powered Daimler
fuel-cell car overcomes the limited range problem of
battery-powered "zero emissions vehicles" (ZEVs),
officials said. The latest prototype gets 280 miles
between refills and can reach top speeds of 90
miles/hour. Despite the car's over-all compact size,
it has comparable luggage space and seats five
passengers. Daimler achieved this breakthrough by
cleverly installing an advanced fuel cell stack,
reformer, fuel supply tank and electric drive
underneath the car's floor board.
Daimler's 2004 commercial version of the car aims
to offer the same instantaneous start-up of a
conventional IC car, through the use of a
larger-than-normal battery. Other cars, such as the
Jeep sport- utility vehicle, also are candidates for
fuel-cells, Daimler said. - - By Jack Peckham
[Copyright 1999, Phillips Publishing]
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