12:11pm EST 23-Mar-99 BancBoston Robertson Stephens (Benjamin, Keith 415-693-3 NSOL: Stock Down on No News; Believe Growth and Competitive Po...
March 23, 1999
N E T W O R K S O L U T I O N S Stock Down on No News; Believe Growth and Competitive Position Still Strong with More Distribution Deals Imminent; Buy
Keith E. Benjamin, CFA (415) 693-3285 keith_benjamin@rsco.com BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS NETWORK SOLUTIONS, INC. NSOL $250 3/23/99 Key Points: ** NSOL was down yesterday on no news. We believe day traders took the stock down after bidding it up on news of a stock split, which is effective for trading tomorrow.
** We believe some investors may have been confused by the launch of NSOL's new Web site, which is designed to improve the customer experience, but may have been viewed negatively as several Web sites were consolidated into one simpler site.
** We believe some Internet message boards incorrectly suggested that Register.com, a current reseller of registration services, had been approved by ICANN as a registrar to compete with NSOL.
** ICANN selects the five initial registrars on April 12. This will be our first glimpse at the identity of the initial competitors, although we believe no strong company has indicated it will step forward. More importantly, we believe NSOL has marketing partnerships that will be almost impossible to beat.
** We believe that by April 26 we will know the price NSOL can charge competing registrars for registry services. We believe something in the range of $10 to $16 per domain name per year would be fair and reasonable to expect.
** We believe the pace of new registrations is strong, and would not be surprised to see total registrations well over 4 million by the end of the March quarter. Buy.
SUMMARY: NSOL was down yesterday on no news. We believe day traders took the stock down after bidding it up on news of a stock split, which is effective for trading tomorrow.
We believe some investors may have been confused by the launch of NSOL's new Web site, which is designed to improve the customer experience, but may have been viewed negatively as several Web sites were consolidated into one simpler site.
We believe some Internet message boards incorrectly suggested that Register.com, a current reseller of registration services, had been approved by ICANN as a registrar to compete with NSOL. This is no reason for the stock to be down. First, it is probably not true because we won't see the list of new registrars from ICANN until April 12. Even if Register.com is eventually selected as a registrar, which we expect is likely, they are one tenth the size of NSOL with limited capital currently and we believe they will have a difficult time growing rapidly in the face of NSOL's marketing relationships.
We believe the stock must continue to work past fears of new competition, which we believe will take a long time to surface. A big part of this is the process for ICANN selecting new registrars. The key dates to focus on are as follows:
March 29 -- Applications are due for selection of the five initial new registrars.
April 12 -- The initial five registrars are chosen. We suspect this may be the first time we see who the initial competitors will be.
April 26 -- The initial five registrars begin operation. We expect the price NSOL can charge registrars will be set by the end of March, and believe something in the range of $10 to $16 per domain name per year would be fair, based on NSOL's cost.
June 25 -- The initial testbed period ends, and ICANN reviews, on a continuous basis, any applicants for registrar status, with no limit on the number of registrars allowed.
We are still unaware of any large competitor planning to step in that would change our optimistic stance on the stock. Deutche Telekom and France Telecom have suggested they may participate, although neither has made much noise in the past few months. We believe a few domain name resellers like Register.com and Namesecure will probably apply for registrar status, but none of these very small companies seem capable of approaching NSOL's marketing muscle.
BUSINESS IMPACT: We continue to believe NSOL is in a leading competitive position. New competitors will emerge, although we believe they will be challenged to take significant market share from NSOL given the company's extensive distribution relationships and marketing head start. Also, NSOL continues to earn revenue, although a smaller amount, for every new customer gained by competitors as it remains the sole registrar for the .com, .org, and .net top-level domains.
We believe there is still significant upside to our estimates. We recently raised our estimate of new registration additions to 500,000 per quarter from 300,000, which is below the current run rate and could be accelerated through additional marketing deals like the recent ones with Yahoo and Netscape. We expect total registrations in the March quarter to be well over 4 million, up over 600,000 from last quarter. We recently raised our estimate for quarterly revenue per registrant slightly, from $8.85 to $9.00, and believe that with increased marketing focus on additional products such as premium registration and directory services, $9.00 could be significantly low as the model matures.
We view the portal agreements as significant for Network Solutions in that they will help ensure a broader reach for Network Solution's products into both consumer and international markets. While we believe the market is large enough to support multiple competitors, so far no significant volunteers have stood up. We believe the fact that Yahoo!, Netscape and American Express have chosen to partner with Network Solutions will help reinforce Network Solutions' unmatched, in our view, competitive position. We believe there could be upside to our revenues and earnings estimates, based on these deals, and expect several more marketing deals over the next two months.
We believe that many companies, which we may have thought could be possible competitors, could actually wind up being partners with Network Solutions instead. We would not be surprised to see other similar type announcements in the near future. Another potential competitor is Microsoft (MSFT $170). However, we doubt Microsoft would spend the time or the government-related aggravation to enter the registration market itself.
INVESTMENT IMPACT: The stock appears to be moving past concerns of new competition, which we believe will not materialize for many quarters, if not years. Even then, we expect Network Solutions will remain the leader by a wide margin. We believe the stock could still rise substantially and still be relatively inexpensive, as it is one of the few Internet companies with current earnings and significant earnings leverage.
We would not be surprised to see continued stock fluctuation until we hear the last data points out of the regulatory environment, which we believe will be the finalizing of the registry price NSOL can charge competing registrars and which companies are selected as testbed participants. Once this news is known, we believe investors will feel more confident in NSOL's leadership position.
THE COMPANY: Network Solutions (NSI) is the exclusive registrar of Internet domain names ending in .com, .org, .net and .edu. NSI currently has approximately 3.4 million domain names registered. For approximately the last 20 years, NSI has been a consultant to the government. In 1993, NSI bid for, and won, a Cooperative Agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF) to handle registration, maintenance and renewal of these individual domain names and update the master registry. At that time, the NSF funded all name registration. The initial agreement expired March 31, 1998, with a six-month flexibility period through September 1998 and a two-year extension granted in October 1998.
INVESTMENT THESIS: In our opinion, NSI's 3.2 million registered domain names only scratch the surface of an incredible opportunity. We believe this represents a handful of businesses whereas there is a much larger opportunity to capture every business in the world and every person in the world. We believe NSOL's growth will be dependent upon how extensively and how quickly the company can attract new people to register domain names. NSI has done limited marketing to date, which we believe could spur even faster growth. We believe by offering value-added services, over time NSI should be able to increase revenue and margin per customer on an annualized basis, as well maintain its competitive lead. We expect investors to become increasingly enthusiastic about NSOL's powerful business model and enviable market position.
INVESTMENT RISKS: Among the risks are the uncertainty of Internet governance and regulation, the company's dependence upon efficient and secure computer and telecommunications equipment, its high level of uncollectible receivables, and its dependence on the growth of the Internet and Internet infrastructure. In addition, while Network Solutions is currently the exclusive registrar for domain names in the .com, .org, .net and .edu, the company could face more serious competition going forward. |