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To: John Pitera who wrote (27422)	3/24/1999 1:28:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

John: There are two Microns as far as I can tell. There is the Micron that produces Dram and there is the stock called Micron. Sometimes I wonder if there is any connection whatsoever. (g) Here are a couple of thoughts. - the article mentions the four year slump. Micron the producer got hammered by that slump (they lost $570.0 million last year) but Micron the stock didn't notice it (the stock essentially rose from $20 to $80). - The article suggests that memory SALES are expected to expand more than 50% annually. Depends on what is meant by "sales". In fact, yield improvement will likely boost mbit output by much more than 50% (some companies will see 100% this year). I think a 50% boost in revenues is a joke. The devil is in the details. (g) - It is interesting to note the unusual breadth of the analysts' forecasts for the quarter. My own view is that a profitable report will depend on superb accounting as much as anything. - Although the article mentions that Micron has kept its costs steady, the company has in fact reduced its costs per mbit. Of course without this, insolvency occurs rapidly. - The 50% mbit growth cited at MU relates more to the TXN additions and the improvement of test problems than anything else. - Dan Niles is out to lunch. He simply is not up to speed with what is going on in Asia, particularly Korea. Hyundai made serious profits on Dram last year. Samsung has doubled Dram production in a year, etc. The Koreans are the memory leaders now. Softer prices put more pressure on Micron than on the Koreans. The Koreans enjoy better yields. Micron has played plenty of games with its inventories over the last several quarters. They can do more of the same. Cash flow is what counts. They haven't had this since I can remember. Best, Earlie