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To: John Pitera who wrote (27436)	3/24/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Respond to of 86076

But John, the price of the forward removes your rate differential. The arbitrages I was referring to are the forward/futures curve trades that many currency desks place when the two curves are out of line and not arbitrage against the spot market. These trades also occur but the expected profit is a fraction of the rate differential.

To: John Pitera who wrote (27436)	3/24/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 86076

don't underestimate the "liquidation cascade" factor... stocks and bonds should fall in advance of the BIG move in the yen (and in fact will cause much of it... self-perpetuating prophesy) as they accelerate.. we get margin calls, loan calls, chaos, selling accelerates... foreigners just want out at any cost so they dump the assets and dollars they are denominated in.. look at Brazil if you don't believe me. Now imagine Brazil w/ no foreign currency reserves... we have ZERO and we have Clinton the clown at the wheel... frankly.. I think he may ruin this country. it WILL happen at some point.... the question is when. 9 to 10 days from now... look optimal to me. The thing we have to watch for is government intervention to slow the slide... ie- somebody doing us a favor and buying dollars to prop up the POS... I doubt they'll do it though.. a weaker dollar would be the BEST thing for the rest of the world sicne everybody's debt is in dollars. Clinton will get his help for poor countries afterall... ho ho.... but it won't come from IMF gold sales (which BTW- is an attempt to prop the dollar... they failed... cause gold did not break down on the news)