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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moonray who wrote (29215)	3/24/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: Scrapps	Respond to of 45548

Siemens Demonstrates Competitive Solutions At Telecom Business '99 biz.yahoo.com

To: Moonray who wrote (29215)	3/24/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Moonray: Muchas Gratias.!

To: Moonray who wrote (29215)	3/24/1999 8:31:00 PM
From: hitesh puri	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 45548

I would like to point out my observations regarding how these analysts change their tune. Its amazing that their analysis is so filled with emotions and reactive reporting. After the Jan 20 analyst meeting the analysts issued reports citing the strong growth ahead of 3Com and outlined all the areas. The presentations made by 3Com management can be viewed at the 3Com website and as I said yesterday, the stuff looks good but even a half brained person can see that the sweet spot of those revenue growth streams is atleast a year away. YET, these analcysts issued strong and bullish reports. In the meantime business at 3Com was trudging along as usual with most of revenue coming from mature, slow growth and lower margin products which are also are hostage to Enterprise and Consumer demand cycles. So what happens when there is a seasonal slowdown ? You know it, they get whacked. And in the following days these same analcysts come out with equally bearish reports citing "lack of revenue growth visibility" etc. etc. It just amazed me to see this turnaround when the fact is that these guys got caught with their pants down. Its their full time jobs for which they get paid big bucks, for Pete's sake. If you read those bullish reports that came out at the end of Jan it was hard to see the immediate revenue growth anyways since the fastest growing segments were still a small part. My point is that these pea-brains write very obviuos stuff and like all of us have no idea of the future events. Tomorrow, if the Enterprise slowdown abates and PC sales starts ticking up then revenue growth will suddenly be visible. If I had heeded similar advice on ASND in Nov 97 regarding it being a bad stock for lack of visibility then I would have been sorry. True ASND and COMS are far apart in terms of leadership and products but the point is do your own research and thinking. A month ago Micron CEO said that pricing had stabilized and earnings would come in better. A week later GOldman Sachs analyst comes and says pricing is weak and unstable and stock tanks by 9. MU just announced earnings today and they beat estimates by 10 cents. Why ? Pricing stability favored margins and hence better earnings. Go figure ! -Hitesh