Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (5016)	3/24/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Respond to of 9818

John, I noticed you really like using chat groups for your research material. In my opinion, Y2K chat groups full of doomers, is the worst place for information. Doomers thrive on BAD news and will avoid any positive news. That's been my experience. WHAT ARE YOU UP TO ????

To: John Mansfield who wrote (5016)	3/25/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

An interesting article and observation--- FX Asia dollar at Y160? Some see Y2K as the trigger The yen is holding up well in the face of Japan's recession, but some see another threat looming: the year 2000 computer glitch. Speculation is growing in the currency markets that slow progress by Japan in resolving the problem will risk capital flight, putting the yen under downward pressure. The Japanese Government, banks and many other areas of the private sector insist they're focusing on the problem and have recently accelerated efforts to deal with it. But among some foreign companies and officials, the suspicion remains that Japan may be lagging far behind most other Group of Seven industrialised countries in preventing possible malfunctions of older computers, whose calendar systems could misread the year 2000 as 1900. A US Senate committee, for example, issued earlier in March a report ranking Japan in the third of four tiers -- meaning Japan is nine to 24 months behind schedule in preparing for the bug. That readiness level is on a par with such countries as Turkey, Mexico and India. "Since the banking sector has proved to be one of the most aggressive sectors in addressing the Y2K problem . . . underestimation on the part of the Japanese banking sector may indicate even less awareness in other sectors," the report warned. Lack of resources at cash-strapped Japanese companies may be one obstacle to solving the problem. Some also cite a general lack of sophistication in information technology at many Japanese companies, compared to their US and European counterparts. "Poor readiness in the financial and other sectors could prompt Japanese money to flee to well-prepared countries such as the US some time this year," says Yukihiko Hashimoto, assistant manager of foreign exchange trading at Sanwa Bank in Tokyo. "Once capital-flight kicked in, the yen might plummet to Y160" against the dollar, he adds. Signs of concern emerge in markets Signs of concern over the problem are beginning to emerge in financial markets. The interest rate on euroyen December 1999 futures is around 0.48pc, almost double 0.26pc rate for September futures. By contrast, the rate for December eurodollar futures is 5.495pc, slightly up from 5.135pc for September futures. "Although the gap is bigger for the US in absolute terms, the Japanese rates have almost doubled. The jump certainly reflects market concern about slow progress in Japan" on the year 2000 problem, says Yasunari Ueno, chief economist at Fuji Securities. Bankers say publicly that the problem isn't affecting business ties. But behind the scenes there is talk that some Western banks may consider reducing exposures to Japanese companies if they drag their feet in addressing the issue. "Japan is almost totally dependent on foreign countries for its energy. Procedures for importing oil and gas, for example, are nowadays managed by computers. If they malfunction and oil imports are disrupted, that would hamper economic activity in Japan," a Tokyo-based banker at a European bank told Dow Jones on condition of anonymity. "It may be safer for our business to reduce those kinds of exposures." Several banking industry sources, Japanese and foreign, said US and European banks had asked the Finance Ministry to slow down Japan's "Big Bang" deregulation to give local banks and brokerages more time to prepare for the computer problem. The ministry's response wasn't known. Views on how much the problem could hurt the yen are divided. Some argue that the worries are overblown. "Since around the end of last year, Japanese banks have intensified efforts to cope with the problem and we have almost solved the problem," says a bank officer in charge of the Year 2000 issue at a major Japanese city bank. "The possibility of the yen falling as a result of Y2K is not high." But the perception that Japan is slow in coping with problem remains strong among Westerners. US-based research company Gartner Group issued a report late last year warning that computers in Japan were likely to fail at a rate of 50pc, compared with 15pc in the US. "Given the insufficiency in addressing the problem in all fields of the Japanese economy, this will increasingly become a negative factor for yen as the year 2000 approaches," says Shuji Takano, assistant manager of foreign exchange at ABN AMRO Bank. "Vulnerability to the problem will be translated into less credibility for the yen in the currency markets." "It is a fact that Japan has recently intensified efforts to get rid of the problem. But unless Japan also tries harder to advertise its efforts, downward pressure on the yen will at least continue for the rest of the year and next," says Sanwa Bank's Hashimoto. Dow Jones afr.com.au ================================================== Gartner says that computers in Japan are likely to fail at a 50% rate! Is there still anyone who doubts that Japan is behind the 1st tier nations in remediation? Yet the media keeps telling us we have nothing to fear - but fear itself. Can the world economy withstand a 50% failure rate in Japan? No damn Way! Yet those who prepare are going to be blamed for causing the problems. After all, they are the ones who have really caused the problems! Right? Teague

To: John Mansfield who wrote (5016)	4/6/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

GPS - OFF TOPIC - Just amazes me ... Captive soldiers lacked critical GPS radios The Army last week acknowledged that the three U.S. soldiers captured by the Yugoslav army were not outfitted with a specially designed radio that could have provided their rescuers with accurate information on their location. fcw.com ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reminded me of this, though ... GPS (GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM) & AUGUST 22, 1999 PROBLEM At a few seconds after midnight, Universal Time, on August 22, 1999, the GPS week counter will roll over from 1023 to zero. Although perhaps a little less momentous than the so-called Y2K problem, it has the potential to cause difficulties for some GPS users. In this month's column, we'll examine this event, why it will occur, and the anticipated consequences ... gpsworld.com On 22 August 1999, unless repaired, many GPS receivers will claim that it is 6 January 1980, 23 August will become 7 January, and so on. Accuracy of navigation may also be severely affected. Although it appears that GPS broadcasts do contain sufficient data to ensure that navigation need not be affected by rollover in 1999, it is not proven that the firmware in all receivers will handle the rollovers in stride. Some manufacturers have already solved the problem, but some have not ... Without a GPS Simulator, there is no way for users to test a GPS receiver for this problem. Users are encouraged to contact their receiver manufacturer to determine if their receiver will be affected, in particular if a failure of navigation could put lives or property at risk." btinternet.com An affected unit will become totally lost on 22 August, 1999. It will not "see" the location of GPS satellites correctly, because it will look for them where they were supposed to be on 6 January, 1980, instead of 22 August, 1999. afn.org Cheryl

To: John Mansfield who wrote (5016)	4/9/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9818

OIL REFINERIES & SECONDARY CLOCK PROBLEM Following is from Bruce Beach ... I have been working for months on getting an interview with a Petroleum Refinery Engineer. Happened Wednesday ... greenspun.com The Embedded Processor SECONDARY Clock Problem BY BRUCE BEACH "I am a former college professor of computer science, and hold both U.S. and Canadian microprocessor patents. The particular application that this paper discusses is oil refineries. I spent one summer as a NUL Fellow with the Chevron Chemical Company, and was at one time a consultant to the Imperial Oil Company, both times in regards to computer systems." HIS "OFF THE RECORD" COMMENTS: webpal.org The interview is on record, and was done by an Independent TV Producer under contract for an affiliate of ABC. However, I will not identify the oil company here because I was allowed to ask off record as many questions as I wished. MY FIRST QUESTION WAS: "How serious is the problem?" I was surprised by the answer. Approximately 25% of the relevant systems had problems. I had only heard such a high figure before from Westergaard. Usually, the figures given have lain between 1% and 7%. I have always used a median figure of 3%. So, this certainly increased my already high respect for Westergaard as a source for reliable information. MY SECOND QUESTION WAS: "How many systems are we talking about". The answer, in a large refinery, several thousand. There are of course tens of thouands, maybe even hundreds of thousand of chips, but the Relevant chips, the ROMs and Microprocessors, and such as I have described, amount to 2 or 3 thousand. The Engineer also made it very clear, that he was NOT talking about chips in PC,s or in Fax machines, or photocopiers, or in the office accounting systems, but STRICTLY in the process controllers of the plant. MY THIRD QUESTION WAS: "How do you go about determining if a system is compliant or not". The answer is, that first it is determined if a system is CRITICAL or ESSENTIAL to the process. Secondly it is determined if the system needs to be Y2K COMPLIANT or just Y2K READY. (Y2K ready systems are systems that will put out a wrong date but that date is not critical to the operation of the system). Many of the devices that we are talking about are PLC's. (Programmed Logic Controllers) and I was eager to look at a PLC. So, what does one look like? Well, many of them are a metal box, about the size of a brick. In fact, at this facility at least, that is their nickname for them, "the brick". But others can be the size of a bread box and others as large or perhaps a bit larger than a large home refrigerator. The PLC is often located right adjacent to the electro/mechanically driven valve with which it associated and the size of the valve is determined by the size of the pipe which it is on. The valve on a 36 inch pipe is of course quite large, but there are many, many smaller pipes with valves, and associated PLC,s throughout the refinery. The size of the PLC has no direct relationship to the valve, but rather to the complexity of the tasks which it controls. Now comes the interesting part, as it was explained to me. These PLC,s are NEVER tested on-line. EACH and EVERYONE of them is removed from the system, and taken off-line for testing ... And then this just in THIS MORNING from the API, with some of whose managers I have personally spoken and whom I personally regard as one of my most UNRELIABLE sources of information - right up there with NERC and some of the government sources which is why I go out and do all this checking myself, in the first place. Anyway, look at this: "One key discovery in the survey was that embedded chips do not pose a significant problem for the industries, said Ron Quiggins, director, Year 2000 Program, Shell Services Corporation and chairman of the API Year 2000 Task Force, said. "We're not finding the embedded chip failures that we thought we had." . . . ." You can check my source for yourself: api.org So, how come, Ron Quiggins, you don't find problems, when this other big oil company that I interviewed does? And Ron, what is wrong with those guys at Texaco? Did you read this month's all black cover "Lights Out" issue of "Wired Magazine", (page 130). What would you consider a significant problem? Somebody is either lying or stupid, and I know that I am not lying, so I hope that you will really write to me and tell me where my stupidity lies. The sooner I get smart, the happier I will be. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cheryl Message 8334434 MORE FROM BRUCE ... The SMOKING GUNS of Y2K webpal.org The SMOKING GUNS of Y2K are the Control Nets of the Power Distribution Grid, the Natural Gas Grid, the Liquid Petroleum Products Grid, the Railroad Grid and the Telecommunications Networks themselves. This REPORT, a work in progress, is here updated as of January 23rd, 1999. It includes the latest information I have been able to find. If you have additional PERSONAL knowledge, or more recent DOCUMENTABLE information, please send it to me survival@webpal.org