To: Kevin K. Spurway who wrote (53412 ) 3/24/1999 8:58:00 PM From: Fred Fahmy Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1571051
Kevin, <You never predict that AMD will go up--yet it has, three times since I first invested...> You're dead wrong. I have talked about the AMD up/down cycle many many times. I predicted past AMD rises as well as declines. There is a sucker's cycle built into this stock. It rises based on hopes and dreams. It declines based on financials and reality. I fully expect another run-up based on K7 hopes. The number of suckers willing to believe anything Jerry tells them appears to be endless. Very simply, this stock is for traders and suckers. Anyone who thinks this stock represents a good long term investment is naive. As far as guessing how high it might go this time, I will venture to say it has the potential to go back to high 20's low 30's...after it finds its bottom. Hard to say if a bottom has been reached. I think this will depend more on general market conditions then anything else. I also fully expect that after AMD climbs back based on K7 hopes, it will once again fall to the mid teens after the reality that K7 is no more of a financial panacea then all the previous K's were sets in. Of course, there always is the possibility that K7's disappointment will come before the stock has had a chance to have a full blown suckers rally. In this case, the stock would probably not get much past the low 20's before retreating once again. BTW, I am not predicting AMD will implode. It will simply continue to limp along with the end came probably being similar to Cyrix. I wish no ill to AMD. I think AMD is good for the industry and good for Intel. I also think AMD could have been successful with the exact same product line (yield problems and all), if they had been well managed with a realistic marketing/sales strategy. Unfortunately, they got greedy and dellusional because Jerry is a nut case. Finally, not only has Paul predicted AMD would go up in the past, but he has traded and profited on those predictions. His AMD buys and sells were posted for all to see. He like many others, understands the AMD cycle and has profited from it. FF