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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Wang who wrote (44236)	3/24/1999 8:04:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Tony, all in all, it really was a great quarter. But going forward, fundamentally one concern may be that bits shipped increased 75%, but semicon revs. increased only 70%, which would mean that ASP's per megabit were down. Hey, how about that - Dan Niles nailed that one too. This is also the second consecutive quarter that they shipped dramatically less than they produced. Last Q production was up 10% and shipments were down 10%; this time production is up 90% and shipments are "only" 75% (that really is an extraordinary number). Funny, but on 3-1-99 Niles was writing: their bit production is up at least 50% MU's quarter ended 3-4-99. So at the time that was released, they had 4 days left in their quarter. And yet, this past Monday, we find him "estimating" a 65% sequential increase in bits growth in shipped. Are we to believe that the additional 15 pts. came during those last four days? 21 days earlier, with 4 days to go until the end of their quarter he's saying they produce "at least 50%" more sequentially... ...now its 65% sequential increase in shipments? Could this morning's ZDII piece possibly shed some light: Micron has been telling analysts that its bit production rose more than 60 percent sequentially in the second quarter. Some of that is just the company playing catch-up after last year's slump and anyway, production doesn't equal shipment; but it still represents a healthy turnaround. zdii.com And guess what? Micron's bit production rose more than 60% sequentially in the second quarter. When did they give the "guidance" ZDII is referring to? Good trading, Tom