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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (18754)	3/24/1999 6:17:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

johnd - unlike ToySoldier, I don't like to make price predictions, because even with the best TA work - there are factors impossible to predict. Some piece of news you could not possibly forsee (such as international events etc.) can send the market into a spin, and so affect where a stock ends up, never mind the fundamentals of the stock, or dynamics of money flow etc. That's what makes trading part science, part art, and part blind chance. However, with all these caveats - I definitely do not expect MSFT to hit 100 post split. Imagine a wildly bullish scenario in which MSFT will climb 7 points tomorrow (this is just an example). That puts it at 177. Friday, imagine the rally continues - another 5 points. Now it's at 182. Post split, that makes it $91. This is extremely optimistic. Now, at this level (post split) - it can't make easy 5 point moves daily anymore. Sure, people will want to get in under 100 - so in that scenario, it could push it up by 3 points a day - that still leaves it under 100. Further, for some reason people are funny about these big round numbers - look at Dow 10K. So, I think just as they want to get in under $100, they don't want to be the first to pay more than $100, so there's natural resistance - and once it falls off, fails to break - a sell off ensues, as people quickly take profits. So even in an extremely optimistic scenario, where MSFT is going up by leaps and bounds that are unreal, and the market cooperates by being very up, I don't see $100. Of course, I could be proven wrong very soon - but that's what makes a horse race and a market, isn't it?